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How will China's saving-investment balance evolve ?

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  • Kuijs, Louis

Abstract

This paper investigates how China's saving, investment, and saving-investment balance will evolvein the decades ahead. Household saving in China is relatively high compared with OECD countries. However, much of China's high economywide saving, and the difference between China and other countries, are due to unusually high enterprise and government saving. Moreover, cross-country empirical analysis shows that economywide saving and investment in China are higher than what would be expected, even adjusting for differences in economic structure. Combined, these findings suggest that much of China's high saving is the result of policies particular to China. Looking ahead, the econometric results suggest that purely on the basis of projected structural developments-including development, changes in economic structure, urbanization, and demographics-saving and investment would both decline only mildly in the coming two decades, with ambiguous impact on the current account surplus. However, the potential effect on saving, investment, and the saving-investment balance of several policy adjustments could be large. Several of these policies are identified and their likely impact assessed and quantified. This exercise suggests that rebalancing along these lines should reduce both saving and the current account surplus over time, although the surplus is unlikely to turn into a deficit soon.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuijs, Louis, 2006. "How will China's saving-investment balance evolve ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3958, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3958
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J Kotlikoff, 2006. "Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us to Dinner? Simulating the Transition Paths of the US, EU, Japan and China," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Christopher Kent & Anna Park & Daniel Rees (ed.), Demography and Financial Markets Reserve Bank of Australia.
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    3. Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2000. "What Drives Private Saving Across the World?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 165-181, May.
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    5. Kuijs, Louis, 2005. "Investment and saving in China," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3633, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cheung, Diana & Padieu, Ysaline, 2015. "Heterogeneity of the Effects of Health Insurance on Household Savings: Evidence from Rural China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 84-103.
    2. Rod Tyers, 2016. "China and Global Macroeconomic Interdependence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(11), pages 1674-1702, November.
    3. Leslie Lipschitz & Genevieve Verdier & Celine Rochon, 2008. "A Real Model of Transitional Growth and Competitiveness in China," IMF Working Papers 08/99, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2016. "Fertility And Savings Contractions In China: Long-Run Global Implications," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 16-24, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    5. GOLLEY, Jane & WEI, Zheng, 2015. "Population dynamics and economic growth in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 15-32.
    6. Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang & Tsun Se Cheong, 2013. "China’s Saving and Global Economic Performance," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 13-20, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    7. Zaiter Lahimer, Mahjouba, 2011. "L’impact des entrées de capitaux privés sur la croissance économique dans les pays en développement," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/7670 edited by Sterdyniak, Henri.
    8. Chao, Chi-Chur & Laffargue, Jean-Pierre & Yu, Eden, 2011. "The Chinese saving puzzle and the life-cycle hypothesis: A revaluation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 108-120, March.
    9. Gu, Xinhua & Tam, Pui Sun, 2013. "The saving–growth–inequality triangle in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 850-857.
    10. K.B. Oh & Xuebin Chen & Jianmei Wang & Geoffrey R. Durden & Nicole El-Haber, 2011. "China’s Changing Demographics and their Influence on Financial Markets," Chapters,in: China’s Economy in the Post-WTO Environment, chapter 3 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Zheng, Jinghai & Bigsten, Arne & Hu, Angang, 2009. "Can China's Growth be Sustained? A Productivity Perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 874-888, April.
    12. Tyers, Rod, 2015. "International effects of China's rise and transition: Neoclassical and Keynesian perspectives," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-19.
    13. Chamon, Marcos & Liu, Kai & Prasad, Eswar, 2013. "Income uncertainty and household savings in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 164-177.
    14. Thierry Apoteker, 2009. "La Chine : accélération des transformations et nouveaux défis," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 95(2), pages 207-228.
    15. Razmi, Arslan & Rapetti, Martin & Skott, Peter, 2012. "The real exchange rate and economic development," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 151-169.
    16. Lipschitz, Leslie & Rochon, Céline & Verdier, Geneviève, 2011. "A real model of transitional growth and competitiveness in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 267-283, August.
    17. Marcelo José Braga Nonnenberg, 2010. "China: Estabilidade e Crescimento Econômico," Discussion Papers 1470, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    18. Kahrl, Fredrich & Roland-Holst, David, 2009. "Growth and structural change in China's energy economy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 894-903.
    19. Rod Tyers & Iain Bain, 2008. "American and European Financial Shocks: Implications for Chinese Economic Performance," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2008-491, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    20. Tyers, Rod, 2014. "Looking inward for transformative growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 166-184.
    21. Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2014. "Short Run Effects of The Economic Reform Agenda," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 14-16, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    22. Vipin Arora & Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2014. "Reconstructing the Savings Glut: The Global Implications of Asian Excess Saving," CAMA Working Papers 2014-20, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

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    Keywords

    Economic Theory&Research; Investment and Investment Climate; Economic Investment&Savings; Non Bank Financial Institutions; Contractual Savings;

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