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China--macroeconomic cycles in the 1980S

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  • Khor, Hoe Ee

Abstract

This paper explores the links between reforms, macroeconomic management and the occurrence of macroeconomic instability in China during the last decade, drawing upon previous analytical work and also employing the “Granger causality” test. It is concluded that the cycles did not originate with the reforms; rather their characteristics were modified by structural changes in the economy. It is further argued that the incompleteness of reforms (which renders macroeconomic management difficult) had the effect of exacerbating the cycles by increasing their amplitude and frequency. Finally, results from the Granger tests suggest that broad money would be a good intermediate target for monetary policy.
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Suggested Citation

  • Khor, Hoe Ee, 1992. "China--macroeconomic cycles in the 1980S," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 173-194.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:3:y:1992:i:2:p:173-194
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    1. Zou, Heng-fu, 1991. "Socialist economic growth and political investment cycles," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 141-157, July.
    2. Roland, Gerard, 1987. "Investment growth fluctuations in the Soviet Union: An econometric analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 192-206, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yu, Qiao, 1997. "Economic Fluctuation, Macro Control, and Monetary Policy in the Transitional Chinese Economy," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 180-195, October.
    2. Mookerjee, Rajen & Peebles, Gavin, 1998. "Endogenous money in China: Evidence and insights on recent policies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 139-158.
    3. Raiser, Martin, 1994. "Lessons for whom, from whom? The transition from socialism in China and Central Eastern Europe compared," Kiel Working Papers 630, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    4. Laurenceson, James & Rodgers, Danielle, 2010. "China's macroeconomic volatility -- How important is the business cycle?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 324-333, June.
    5. James Laurenceson & Corrine Dobson, "undated". "China’s business cycles since 1979: a chronology and comparative analysis," EAERG Discussion Paper Series 1705, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.

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