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Which Output Gap Measure Matters for the Arab Gulf Cooperation Council Countries (AGCC): The Overall GDP Output Gap or the Non-Oil Sector Output Gap?

  • Osman, Mohammad
  • Louis, Rosmy
  • Balli, Faruk

In this paper we estimate the output gaps of the AGCC countries using four different methods that are: the linear trend model, Hodrick-Prescott filter, Band-Pass filter and the unobserved components model. To perform meaningful comparisons, we differentiate between the overall and non-oil output gap and estimate their respective gaps. Several primary conclusions are manifestly noted from our analysis. First, all the different methods but the unobserved components model has produced almost similar results. Second, our results indicate that all the countries in the region have similar business cycles. Third, we find that there is no significant difference between the overall output gap measures and the non-oil output gaps for all the countries in the region. Fourth, the estimated output gaps did not have any explanatory power on domestic inflation for all the countries with the exception of Saudi Arabia and Oman.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 11612.

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Date of creation: Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11612
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  1. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The reliability of output gap estimates in real time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. GERLACH, Stefan & Peng, Wensheng, 2006. "Output gaps and inflation in Mainland China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 210-225.
  3. Gerlach, Stefan & Yiu, Matthew S., 2004. "Estimating output gaps in Asia: A cross-country study," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 115-136, March.
  4. Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-84, November.
  5. Diebold, Francis X & Senhadji, Abdelhak S, 1996. "The Uncertain Unit Root in Real GNP: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1291-98, December.
  6. Iris Claus, 2000. "Is the output gap a useful indicator of inflation?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
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