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Detecting hot and cold cycles using a Markov regime switching model--Evidence from the Chinese A-share IPO market

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  • Guo, Haifeng
  • Brooks, Robert
  • Shami, Roland

Abstract

This paper focuses on detecting hot and cold IPO cycles in the Chinese A-share market using a Markov regime switching model. We introduce a set of observations to measure IPO activities, which include numbers of IPOs issued, levels of underpricing, market conditions and duration time from prospectus and listing, and thus establish a model to estimate these activities' average performance in hot and cold periods respectively. It is found that a hot period is related with an abundant supply of IPOs, high levels of underpricing, positive market conditions and short waiting time to listing after prospectus issue. Further, this paper depicts the turning points of hot and cold periods across the period from 1994 to 2005 for each observation. The cycles detected by the number of IPOs per month are the benchmark and then these cycles' robustness is tested by the other observations.

Suggested Citation

  • Guo, Haifeng & Brooks, Robert & Shami, Roland, 2010. "Detecting hot and cold cycles using a Markov regime switching model--Evidence from the Chinese A-share IPO market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 196-210, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:19:y:2010:i:2:p:196-210
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. L. Hedhili Zaier & A. Kammoun Abdelmoula, 2014. "Hot and Cold Cycles for African Emerging Share IPO Market Evidence from Tunisia," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(11), pages 1691-1704, November.
    2. Li, Johnny Siu-Hang & Ng, Andrew C.Y. & Chan, Wai-Sum, 2015. "Managing financial risk in Chinese stock markets: Option pricing and modeling under a multivariate threshold autoregression," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 217-230.
    3. Chan, Yue-Cheong, 2014. "How does retail sentiment affect IPO returns? Evidence from the internet bubble period," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 235-248.
    4. Yang, Jen-Wei & Tsai, Shu-Yu & Shyu, So-De & Chang, Chia-Chien, 2016. "Pairs trading: The performance of a stochastic spread model with regime switching-evidence from the S&P 500," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 139-150.
    5. Zhiqiang HU & Yizhu WANG, 2013. "The IPO Cycles in China's A-share IPO Market: Detection Based on a Three Regimes Markov Switching Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 115-131, October.
    6. repec:fau:fauart:v:68:y:2018:i:2:p:165-199 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Chang, Chih-Hsiang, 2011. "IPO underpricing: A social comparison perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 367-375, June.
    8. Güçbilmez, Ufuk, 2015. "IPO waves in China and Hong Kong," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 14-26.

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