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Detecting hot and cold cycles using a Markov regime switching model--Evidence from the Chinese A-share IPO market

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  • Guo, Haifeng
  • Brooks, Robert
  • Shami, Roland

Abstract

This paper focuses on detecting hot and cold IPO cycles in the Chinese A-share market using a Markov regime switching model. We introduce a set of observations to measure IPO activities, which include numbers of IPOs issued, levels of underpricing, market conditions and duration time from prospectus and listing, and thus establish a model to estimate these activities' average performance in hot and cold periods respectively. It is found that a hot period is related with an abundant supply of IPOs, high levels of underpricing, positive market conditions and short waiting time to listing after prospectus issue. Further, this paper depicts the turning points of hot and cold periods across the period from 1994 to 2005 for each observation. The cycles detected by the number of IPOs per month are the benchmark and then these cycles' robustness is tested by the other observations.

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  • Guo, Haifeng & Brooks, Robert & Shami, Roland, 2010. "Detecting hot and cold cycles using a Markov regime switching model--Evidence from the Chinese A-share IPO market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 196-210, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:19:y:2010:i:2:p:196-210
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    3. Xinyu Wang & Cathy Ning, 2022. "A new Markov regime‐switching count time series approach for forecasting initial public offering volumes and detecting issue cycles," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 118-133, January.
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    6. Haifeng Guo & Hung‐Gay Fung, 2011. "Growth Enterprise Board Initial Public Offerings: Characteristics, Volatility and the Initial‐day Performance," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 19(1), pages 106-121, January.
    7. Iván Cárdenas-Gallo & Raha Akhavan-Tabatabaei & Mauricio Sánchez-Silva & Emilio Bastidas-Arteaga, 2016. "A Markov regime-switching framework to forecast El Niño Southern Oscillation patterns," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(2), pages 829-843, March.
    8. Zhiqiang HU & Yizhu WANG, 2013. "The IPO Cycles in China's A-share IPO Market: Detection Based on a Three Regimes Markov Switching Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 115-131, October.
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