IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

The IPO Cycles in China's A-share IPO Market: Detection Based on a Three Regimes Markov Switching Model

  • Zhiqiang HU

    ()

    (Economic and Management School of Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, China.)

  • Yizhu WANG

    ()

    (Economic and Management School of Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, China.)

Registered author(s):

    This paper expands the IPO market conditions from two states to three states, which include hot periods, cold periods and interim periods, and improves upon measures used to detect IPO market cycles given cycle strength in China’s IPO market. We use a model based on the three Markov regime switching models to conduct regressions with respective proxy variables. By analyzing regression results, filtered probability and smoothed probability, we extract ten differing IPO cycles corresponding to ten different proxy variables. Further, this paper highlights results of various IPO market cycles in China’s A-share market from January 1994 to June 2012. Results confirm the relationship between IPO market cycles and IPO numbers in addition to effects from underpricing, market conditions and government regulation. The aforementioned all enrich the theory of IPO cycles.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef3_13/rjef3_2013p115-131.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Article provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal for Economic Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): (2013)
    Issue (Month): 3 (October)
    Pages: 115-131

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2013:i:3:p:115-131
    Contact details of provider: Postal:
    Casa Academiei, Calea 13, Septembrie nr.13, sector 5, Bucureşti 761172

    Phone: 004 021 3188148
    Fax: 004 021 3188148
    Web page: http://www.ipe.ro/
    Email:


    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles Nelson, 1999. "A Bayesian Approach to Testing for Markov Switching in Univariate and Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 0035, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    2. Guo, Haifeng & Brooks, Robert & Shami, Roland, 2010. "Detecting hot and cold cycles using a Markov regime switching model--Evidence from the Chinese A-share IPO market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 196-210, April.
    3. Garcia, R. & Perron, P., 1990. "An Anlysis Of The Real Interest Rate Under Regime Shifts," Papers 353, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
    4. Blondell, David & Hoang, Philip & Powell, John G. & Shi, Jing, 2002. "Detection of Financial Time Series Turning Points: A New CUSUM Approach Applied to IPO Cycles," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 293-315, May.
    5. Michelle Lowry & G. William Schwert, 2002. "IPO Market Cycles: Bubbles or Sequential Learning?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1171-1200, 06.
    6. Brailsford, Tim & Heaney, Richard & Shi, Jing, 2004. "Modelling the behaviour of the new issue market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 119-132.
    7. Marco Pagano & Fabio Panetta & Luigi Zingales, . "Why Do Companies Go Public? An Empirical Analysis," CRSP working papers 330, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    8. Ibbotson, Roger G & Jaffe, Jeffrey F, 1975. ""Hot Issue" Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(4), pages 1027-42, September.
    9. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R, 1995. " The New Issues Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 23-51, March.
    10. Walid, Chkili & Chaker, Aloui & Masood, Omar & Fry, John, 2011. "Stock market volatility and exchange rates in emerging countries: A Markov-state switching approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 272-292, September.
    11. Tien-Yu Chiu & Shwu-Jane Shieh, 2009. "Regime-Switched Volatility Of Brent Crude Oil Futures With Markov-Switching Arch Model," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(02), pages 113-124.
    12. Jason Draho, 2007. "The Convergence of Public and Private Equity Markets: Cyclical or Structural?," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 19(3), pages 117-124.
    13. Çolak, Gönül & Günay, Hikmet, 2011. "Strategic waiting in the IPO markets," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 555-583, June.
    14. Clements, Michael P & Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 2003. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterization and Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 196-211, January.
    15. Rajan, Raghuram & Servaes, Henri, 1997. " Analyst Following of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 507-29, June.
    16. Lubos Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2005. "Rational IPO Waves," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1713-1757, 08.
    17. Guo, Feng & Chen, Carl R. & Huang, Ying Sophie, 2011. "Markets contagion during financial crisis: A regime-switching approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 95-109, January.
    18. Bouis, Romain, 2009. "The short-term timing of initial public offerings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 587-601, December.
    19. Clements, M.P. & Krolzig, H-M., 1999. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterisationand Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregression," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 522, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2013:i:3:p:115-131. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Corina Saman)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.