IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jforec/v41y2022i1p118-133.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A new Markov regime‐switching count time series approach for forecasting initial public offering volumes and detecting issue cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Xinyu Wang
  • Cathy Ning

Abstract

This study proposes a novel Markov regime‐switching negative binomial generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model for analyzing count data time series. We develop a likelihood‐based method for parameter estimation and give the one‐step‐ahead forecasting algorithms for the mean, variance, and quantiles. An empirical analysis of both the U.S. initial public offering (IPO) and Chinese A‐share IPO markets indicates that our method is very efficient in forecasting monthly IPO volumes and detecting hot/cold issue markets. The first‐day IPO return is positively correlated with the IPO volume in a hot issue market but negatively correlated with the IPO volume in a cold issue market, in both the U.S. and Chinese IPO markets. However, the average first‐day return in the previous hot issue market has a significant positive impact on the current IPO volume for only the U.S. IPO market. Our approach helps to more accurately model and understand the behavior of hot/cold IPO issue markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Xinyu Wang & Cathy Ning, 2022. "A new Markov regime‐switching count time series approach for forecasting initial public offering volumes and detecting issue cycles," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 118-133, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:41:y:2022:i:1:p:118-133
    DOI: 10.1002/for.2799
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2799
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/for.2799?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bartling, Björn & Park, Andreas, 2009. "What determines the level of IPO gross spreads? Underwriter profits and the cost of going public," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 81-109, January.
    2. Blondell, David & Hoang, Philip & Powell, John G. & Shi, Jing, 2002. "Detection of Financial Time Series Turning Points: A New CUSUM Approach Applied to IPO Cycles," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 293-315, May.
    3. Michelle Lowry & G. William Schwert, 2002. "IPO Market Cycles: Bubbles or Sequential Learning?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1171-1200, June.
    4. René Ferland & Alain Latour & Driss Oraichi, 2006. "Integer‐Valued GARCH Process," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(6), pages 923-942, November.
    5. Yung, Chris & Çolak, Gönül & Wei Wang, 2008. "Cycles in the IPO market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 192-208, July.
    6. Lowry, Michelle, 2003. "Why does IPO volume fluctuate so much?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 3-40, January.
    7. Güçbilmez, Ufuk, 2015. "IPO waves in China and Hong Kong," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 14-26.
    8. François Derrien, 2005. "IPO Pricing in 'Hot' Market Conditions: Who Leaves Money on the Table?," Post-Print hal-00480827, HAL.
    9. Aydoğan Alti, 2006. "How Persistent Is the Impact of Market Timing on Capital Structure?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1681-1710, August.
    10. Franҫois Derrien, 2005. "IPO Pricing in “Hot” Market Conditions: Who Leaves Money on the Table?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 487-521, February.
    11. Fukang Zhu, 2011. "A negative binomial integer‐valued GARCH model," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 54-67, January.
    12. Ivanov, Vladimir & Lewis, Craig M., 2008. "The determinants of market-wide issue cycles for initial public offerings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 567-583, December.
    13. Franc Klaassen, 2002. "Improving GARCH volatility forecasts with regime-switching GARCH," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 363-394.
    14. Ľuboš Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2005. "Rational IPO Waves," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1713-1757, August.
    15. Pierre Guérin & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013. "Markov-Switching MIDAS Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 45-56, January.
    16. Tim Brailsford & Richard Heaney & John Powell & Jing Shi, 2000. "Hot and Cold IPO Markets: Identification Using a Regime Switching Model," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 4(1-2), pages 35-68, March-Jun.
    17. Baxamusa, Mufaddal & Jalal, Abu, 2018. "Industry networks and IPO waves," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 129-146.
    18. Goodwin, Thomas H, 1993. "Business-Cycle Analysis with a Markov-Switching Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(3), pages 331-339, July.
    19. Boeh, Kevin & Dunbar, Craig, 2014. "IPO waves and the issuance process," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 455-473.
    20. Guo, Haifeng & Brooks, Robert & Shami, Roland, 2010. "Detecting hot and cold cycles using a Markov regime switching model--Evidence from the Chinese A-share IPO market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 196-210, April.
    21. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    22. Mauer, David C. & Wang, Song & Wang, Xiao & Zhang, Yilei, 2015. "Global diversification and IPO returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 436-456.
    23. Ibbotson, Roger G & Jaffe, Jeffrey F, 1975. ""Hot Issue" Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(4), pages 1027-1042, September.
    24. Helwege, Jean & Liang, Nellie, 2004. "Initial Public Offerings in Hot and Cold Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(3), pages 541-569, September.
    25. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Güçbilmez, Ufuk, 2015. "IPO waves in China and Hong Kong," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 14-26.
    2. Muhammad Zubair Mumtaz & Zachary Alexander Smith, 2018. "IPOs in the U.S. from 2005 to 2015: Using the Spline Regression Technique to Estimate Aggregate Issuance and Performance," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(2), pages 165-199, April.
    3. Michael O'Connor Keefe & David Gallagher, 2014. "Does the effect of revealed private information on initial public offering (IPO) first trading day return differ by IPO market heat?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 54(3), pages 921-964, September.
    4. Çolak, Gönül & Günay, Hikmet, 2011. "Strategic waiting in the IPO markets," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 555-583, June.
    5. Guo, Haifeng & Brooks, Robert & Shami, Roland, 2010. "Detecting hot and cold cycles using a Markov regime switching model--Evidence from the Chinese A-share IPO market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 196-210, April.
    6. Banerjee, Shantanu & Güçbilmez, Ufuk & Pawlina, Grzegorz, 2016. "Leaders and followers in hot IPO markets," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 309-334.
    7. Shantanu Banerjee & Ufuk Güçbilmez & Grzegorz Pawlina, 2013. "IPO waves and hot markets in the UK," Chapters, in: Mario Levis & Silvio Vismara (ed.), Handbook of Research on IPOs, chapter 4, pages 76-98, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Zhiqiang HU & Yizhu WANG, 2013. "The IPO Cycles in China's A-share IPO Market: Detection Based on a Three Regimes Markov Switching Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 115-131, October.
    9. Colak, Gonul & Fu, Mengchuan & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2020. "Why are some Chinese firms failing in the US capital markets? A machine learning approach," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    10. Giulia Baschieri & Andrea Carosi & Stefano Mengoli, 2023. "Local IPO waves, local shocks, and the going public decision," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2565-2589, July.
    11. Chemmanur, Thomas J. & He, Jie, 2011. "IPO waves, product market competition, and the going public decision: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 382-412, August.
    12. Grammenos, Costas Th. & Papapostolou, Nikos C., 2012. "US shipping initial public offerings: Do prospectus and market information matter?," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 276-295.
    13. Jerry Coakley & Leon Hadass & Andrew Wood, 2008. "Hot IPOs can damage your long-run wealth!," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(14), pages 1111-1120.
    14. Chan, Yue-Cheong, 2014. "How does retail sentiment affect IPO returns? Evidence from the internet bubble period," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 235-248.
    15. Alimov, Azizjon & Mikkelson, Wayne, 2012. "Does favorable investor sentiment lead to costly decisions to go public?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 519-540.
    16. Troy Pollard, 2016. "Sneaking in the back door? An evaluation of reverse mergers and IPOs," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 305-341, August.
    17. Subadar Agathee, Ushad & Brooks, Chris & Sannassee, Raja Vinesh, 2012. "Hot and cold IPO markets: The case of the Stock Exchange of Mauritius," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 168-192.
    18. Nguyen Thanh, Binh, 2020. "Macroeconomic uncertainty, the option to wait and IPO issue cycles," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    19. Yung, Chris & Çolak, Gönül & Wei Wang, 2008. "Cycles in the IPO market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 192-208, July.
    20. Oehler, Andreas & Rummer, Marco & Smith, Peter N., 2004. "IPO Pricing and the Relative Importance of Investor Sentiment: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 26, University of Bamberg, Chair of Finance.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:41:y:2022:i:1:p:118-133. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.