IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Provincial fiscal positions and business cylce synchronization across China

  • Lan, Yuexing
  • Sylwester, Kevin

This paper examines to what extent Chinese provinces with similar fiscal policies have synchronous business cycles. Following Darvas, Rose, and Szapáry (2007), we create a measure of fiscal policy divergence between provinces i and j and see if it is associated with the correlation of output movements between i and j. To examine this relation, we use the correlation model of Frankel and Rose (1998). Since causation can run from both fiscal policy to output fluctuations and from output fluctuations to fiscal policy, we instrument for fiscal policy using government expenditure on cultural activities which remains steady across the business cycle. Results show that provinces with similar budgetary positions tend to have similar business cycle movements.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6W53-4YKGJ5F-3/2/1aa7374fadeb25e37fe40076447ceb6d
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Asian Economics.

Volume (Year): 21 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (August)
Pages: 355-364

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:21:y:2010:i:4:p:355-364
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/asieco

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Economic Structure and the Decision to Adopt a Common Currency," Seminar Papers 611, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  2. Todd E. Clark & Eric van Wincoop, 1999. "Borders and business cycles," Research Working Paper 99-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  3. Marianne Baxter & Michael Kouparitsas, 2004. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Working Paper Series WP-04-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  4. Reuven Glick & Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Does a Currency Union Affect Trade? The Time Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 8396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Hehui Jin & Yingyi Qian & Barry Weingast, 1999. "Regional Decentralization and Fiscal Incentives: Federalism, Chinese Style," Working Papers 99013, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
  6. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
  7. Philip R. Lane, 2002. "The Cyclical Behaviour of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from the OECD," Trinity Economics Papers 20022, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  8. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2002. "The Case for Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion," CEPR Discussion Papers 3277, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Zhang, Tao & Zou, Heng-fu, 1998. "Fiscal decentralization, public spending, and economic growth in China," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 221-240, February.
  10. Zsolt Darvas & Andrew K. Rose & György Szapáry, 2005. "Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic," MNB Working Papers 2005/03, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  11. Michael J. Artis & Jarko Fidrmuc & Johann Scharler, 2008. "The transmission of business cycles," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(3), pages 559-582, 07.
  12. Kocenda, Evzen & Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2008. "Fiscal convergence in the European Union," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 319-330, December.
  13. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July.
  14. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Marco Terrones, 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," IMF Working Papers 03/27, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2004. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Rules in the US States," CEPR Discussion Papers 4372, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Levinson, Arik, 1998. "Balanced Budgets and Business Cycles: Evidence from the States," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 51(n. 4), pages 715-32, December.
  17. Philip Arestis & Mosahid Khan & Kul B. Luintel, 2002. "Fiscal Deficits in Monetary Unions: A Comparison of EMU and United States," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 28(1), pages 89-103, Winter.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:21:y:2010:i:4:p:355-364. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.