Fiscal institutions and public spending volatility in Europe
This work provides empirical evidence for a sizeable, statistically significant negative impact of the quality of fiscal institutions on public spending volatility for a panel of 23 EU countries over the 1980–2007 period. The dependent variable is the volatility of discretionary fiscal policy, which does not represent reactions to changes in economic conditions. Our baseline results thus give support to the strengthening of institutions to deal with excessive levels of discretion volatility, as more checks and balances make it harder for governments to change fiscal policy for reasons unrelated to the current state of the economy. Our results also show that bigger countries and bigger governments have less public spending volatility. In contrast to previous studies, the political factors do not seem to play a role, with the exception of the Herfindahl index, which suggests that a high concentration of parliamentary seats in a few parties would increase public spending volatility.
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- Afonso, António & Agnello, Luca & Furceri, Davide, 2008.
"Fiscal policy responsiveness, persistence and discretion,"
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- António Afonso & Luca Agnello & Davide Furceri, 2008. "Fiscal Policy Responiveness, Persistence and Discretion," Working Papers Department of Economics 2008/50, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- António Afonso & Luca Agnello & Davide Furceri, 2008. "Fiscal Policy Responsiveness, Persistence, and Discretion," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 659, OECD Publishing.
- Hallerberg, Mark & Strauch, Rolf & von Hagen, Jurgen, 2007.
"The design of fiscal rules and forms of governance in European Union countries,"
European Journal of Political Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 338-359, June.
- Hallerberg, Mark & Strauch, Rolf & Hagen, Jürgen von, 2006. "The design of fiscal rules and forms of governance in European Union countries," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 150, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
- Hallerberg, Mark & Strauch, Rolf & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2004. "The design of fiscal rules and forms of governance in European Union countries," Working Paper Series 0419, European Central Bank.
- António Afonso & Davide Furceri, 2008.
"Government Size, Composition, Volatility and Economic Growth,"
Working Papers Department of Economics
2008/04, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide, 2010. "Government size, composition, volatility and economic growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 517-532, December.
- Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide, 2008. "Government size, composition, volatility and economic growth," Working Paper Series 0849, European Central Bank.
- Bruno Albuquerque, 2010.
"Fiscal Institutions and Public Spending Volatility in Europe,"
w201017, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Albuquerque, Bruno, 2011. "Fiscal institutions and public spending volatility in Europe," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2544-2559.
- Bruno Albuquerque, 2012. "Fiscal institutions and public spending volatility in Europe," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Roberto Perotti & Massimo Rostagno, 2002. "Electoral Systems and Public Spending," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 609-657.
- Xavier Debrun & Laurent Moulin & Alessandro Turrini & Joaquim Ayuso-i-Casals & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2008. "Tied to the mast? National fiscal rules in the European Union," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 23, pages 297-362, 04.
- Furceri, Davide & Poplawski Ribeiro, Marcos, 2008. "Government spending volatility and the size of nations," Working Paper Series 0924, European Central Bank.
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