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Government spending volatility and the size of nations

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  • Furceri, Davide
  • Poplawski Ribeiro, Marcos

Abstract

This paper provides empirical evidence showing that smaller countries tend to have more volatile government spending for a sample of 160 countries from 1960 to 2000. We argue that the larger size of a country decreases the volatility of government spending because it acts as an insurance against idiosyncratic shocks, and it leads to increasing returns to scale due to the higher ability of the government to spread its cost of financing over a larger pool of taxpayers. The results are robust to different time and country samples, different econometric techniques and to several sets of control variables. The analysis also evinces that country size is negatively related to the discretionary part of government spending and to the volatilities of most of the government spending items. JEL Classification: E62, H10

Suggested Citation

  • Furceri, Davide & Poplawski Ribeiro, Marcos, 2008. "Government spending volatility and the size of nations," Working Paper Series 924, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2008924
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp924.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Naotaka Sugawara, 2014. "From Volatility to Stability in Expenditure: Stabilization Funds in Resource-Rich Countries," IMF Working Papers 2014/043, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Bruno Albuquerque, 2012. "Fiscal institutions and public spending volatility in Europe," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    3. Thien Vu Tran & Joseph Drew & Masayoshi Noguchi, 2018. "The Role of Revenue Volatility in Local Expenditure Volatility: A Comparison of Tokyo Metropolitan Local Governments," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 37(4), pages 443-455, December.
    4. Serhan Cevik & Katerina Teksoz, 2014. "Deep Roots of Fiscal Behavior," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(2), pages 5-33, November.
    5. Aisha Tauqir & Muhammad Tariq Majeed & Sadaf Kashif, 2022. "Foreign Direct Investment and Output Volatility Nexus: A Global Analysis," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 57(3), pages 283-309, August.
    6. Agata Drobiszová & Zuzana Machová, 2015. "Vliv fiskální politiky na ekonomický růst v zemích OECD [The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth in the OECD Countries]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(3), pages 300-316.
    7. Vratislav Izák, 2011. "The Welfare State and Economic Growth," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2011(4), pages 291-308.
    8. Sara Maria Riscado & Juraj Stančík & Timo Välilä, 2011. "Macro‐Fiscal Volatility and the Composition of Public Spending," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 32(4), pages 511-538, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    country size; fiscal policy; fiscal volatility; government size;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H10 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - General

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