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Is Government Expenditure Volatility Harmful for Growth? A Cross-Country Analysis

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  • Davide Furceri

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to analyse the relationship between government expenditure volatility and long-run growth. Using cross-country panel data from 1970 to 2000, the paper finds that countries with higher government expenditure business-cycle volatility have lower growth, even after controlling for other country-specific growth correlates such as investment, government expenditure, human capital, population growth and output volatility. This relation is robust to different measures of business cycles. Moreover, considering different subsamples, the paper finds that while government volatility significantly affects long-run growth for developing countries, it has a small effect for OECD countries. Copyright 2007 Institute for Fiscal Studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Davide Furceri, 2007. "Is Government Expenditure Volatility Harmful for Growth? A Cross-Country Analysis," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 28(1), pages 103-120, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:ifs:fistud:v:28:y:2007:i:1:p:103-120
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    Cited by:

    1. António Afonso & Luca Agnello & Davide Furceri, 2010. "Fiscal policy responsiveness, persistence, and discretion," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 145(3), pages 503-530, December.
    2. Dionysios K. Solomos & Dimitrios N. Koumparoulis, 2013. "Financial Sector and Business Cycles Determinants in the EMU: An Empirical Approach (1996-2011)," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 34-58.
    3. Sacchi, Agnese & Salotti, Simone, 2015. "The impact of national fiscal rules on the stabilisation function of fiscal policy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-20.
    4. Furceri, Davide & Poplawski Ribeiro, Marcos, 2008. "Government spending volatility and the size of nations," Working Paper Series 924, European Central Bank.
    5. Syed Ammad & Sabihuddin Butt & Shaista Alam, 2012. "Fiscal Responsiveness, Persistence and Discretion: A Case Study of Pakistan," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 15(45), pages 227-244, September.
    6. Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2009. "The Determinants of Public Deficit Volatility," NIPE Working Papers 11/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    7. Scott W. Hegerty, 2014. "Do International Capital Flows Worsen Macroeconomic Volatility in Transition Economies?," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 1-13.
    8. Agnese Sacchi & Simone Salotti, 2017. "The influence of decentralized taxes and intergovernmental grants on local spending volatility," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 507-522.
    9. Christian Ebeke & Helene Ehrhart, 2012. "Tax Revenue Instability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and Remedies," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), pages 1-27.
    10. Maria Grydaki & Stilianos Fountas, 2009. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Output Volatility: A Theoretical Approach," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 552-569, August.
    11. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide, 2010. "Government size, composition, volatility and economic growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 517-532, December.
    12. Davide Furceri & Agnese Sacchi & Simone Salotti, 2016. "Can Fiscal Decentralization Alleviate Government Consumption Volatility?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 611-636, September.
    13. Carine Bouthevillain & John Caruana & Cristina Checherita & Jorge Cunha & Esther Gordo & Stephan Haroutunian & Geert Langenus & Amela Hubic & Bernhard Manzke & Javier J. Pérez & Pietro Tommasino, 2009. "Pros and cons of various fiscal measures to stimulate the economy," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España;Economic Bulletin Homepage, issue JUL, July.
    14. Davide Furceri & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2012. "Financial Integration and Fiscal Policy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 805-822, November.
    15. Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2007. "Volatile public spending in a model of money and sustainable growth," Discussion Paper Series 2007_18, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Jul 2007.
    16. Varvarigos, Dimitrios, 2010. "Inflation, volatile public spending, and endogenously sustained growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1893-1906, October.
    17. Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2010. "Inflation, Volatile Public Spending, and Endogenously Sustained Growth," Post-Print hal-00732760, HAL.
    18. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2016. "Economic Volatility and Sovereign Yields’ Determinants: a Time-Varying Approach," Working Papers Department of Economics 2016/04, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    19. Zuzana Machová & Igor Kotlán, 2015. "Právní jistota - možný problém daňové politiky vyspělých zemí?
      [Legal Certainty - Possible Problem of Tax Policy in Developed Countries?]
      ," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2015(7), pages 833-846.
    20. Serhan Cevik & Katerina Teksoz, 2014. "Deep Roots of Fiscal Behavior," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(2), pages 5-33, November.
    21. Ahmed, Abdullahi D. & Suardi, Sandy, 2009. "Macroeconomic Volatility, Trade and Financial Liberalization in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 1623-1636, October.
    22. Solomos, Dionysios & Papageorgiou, Theofanis & Koumparoulis, Dimitrios, 2012. "Financial Sector and Business Cycles Determinants in the EMU context: An Empirical Approach (1996-2011)," MPRA Paper 43858, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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