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Uncertainty, Flexible Exchange Rates, and Agglomeration

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  • Mr. Luca A Ricci

Abstract

This paper shows that exchange rate variability promotes agglomeration of economic activity. Under flexible rates, firms located in large markets have lower variability of sales, reinforcing concentration of firms there. Empirical evidence on OECD countries demonstrates (1) that the negative effect of country size on variability of industrial production is stronger after the 1973 collapse of fixed rates and (2) for small (large) countries, exchange rates variability has a long-run negative (positive) effect on net inward FDI flows. Two implications arise: creating a currency area fosters agglomeration in the area, and a two-stage EMU may exacerbate the current uneven regional development.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Luca A Ricci, 1998. "Uncertainty, Flexible Exchange Rates, and Agglomeration," IMF Working Papers 1998/009, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1998/009
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    Cited by:

    1. Nigel Pain & Desirée Van Welsum, 2003. "Untying The Gordian Knot: The Multiple Links Between Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 823-846, December.
    2. Antoni Estevadeordal & Christian Volpe Martincus, 2006. "Specialization and Diverging Manufacturing Structures: The Aftermath of Trade Policy Reforms in Developing Countries," Development Working Papers 220, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    3. Tille, Cedric, 2006. "On the distributional effects of exchange rate fluctuations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1207-1225, December.
    4. Lionel Fontagné & Michael Freudenberg, 1999. "Endogenous Symmetry of Shocks in a Monetary Union," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 263-287, July.
    5. Olivier Loisel, 2005. "Endogenously Asymmetric Demand Shocks in a Monetary Union," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 20, pages 746-770.
    6. Ray Barrell & Sylvia Gottschalk & Dawn Holland & Ehsan Khoman & Iana Liadze & Olga Pomerantz, 2008. "The impact of EMU on growth and employment," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 318, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    7. Omer Ali Ibrahim & Sufian Eltayeb Mohamed Abdel-Gadir, 2015. "Motives and Determinants of FDI: A VECM Analysis for Oman," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 16(6), pages 936-946, December.
    8. Sylvia Gottschalk & Stephen Hall, 2008. "Foreign direct investment and exchange rate uncertainty in South-East Asia," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 349-359.
    9. Saeed Rasekhi & Shideh Sadat Shojaee, 2012. "Determinant factors of vertical intra industry trade in agricultural sector: A study of Iran and her main trading partners," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 58(4), pages 180-190.
    10. Christian Aubin & Camélia Turcu, 2013. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Production Structures Across Countries: the European Case," Working Papers hal-00961835, HAL.
    11. Shauna Phillips & Fredoun Z. Ahmadi-Esfahani, 2008. "Exchange rates and foreign direct investment: theoretical models and empirical evidence ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 52(4), pages 505-525, December.
    12. Ricci, Luca Antonio, 2008. "A Model of an Optimum Currency Area," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 2, pages 1-31.
    13. Jean IMBS, 1998. "Fluctuations, Bilateral Trade and the Exchange Rate Regime," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 9906, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie, revised Nov 1998.
    14. Christian Volpe Martincus & Antoni Estevadeordal, 2009. "Trade policy and specialization in developing countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(2), pages 251-275, July.

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