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Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Synchronization: The Case of East Asia

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    This paper examines whether increasing trade intensity among East Asian countries has led to a synchronization of business cycles. It extends the work of Shin and Wang (2004) in two ways: by (i) improving the specification of their business cycle correlation equation, and (ii) extending the sample to cover the period after the Asian financial crisis. The study finds that intra-industry trade, rather than inter-industry trade, is the major factor explaining business cycle co-movements in East Asia, with important implications for the prospects for a single currency in the region.

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    File URL: http://aric.adb.org/pdf/workingpaper/WP10_Rana.pdf
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    Paper provided by Asian Development Bank in its series Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration with number 10.

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    Length: 20 pages
    Date of creation: 01 Jun 2007
    Handle: RePEc:ris:adbrei:0010
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    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
    2. Kwanho Shin & Yunjong Wang, 2003. "Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 2(3), pages 1-20.
    3. Tamim Bayoumi & Paolo Mauro, 2001. "The Suitability of ASEAN for a Regional Currency Arrangement," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(7), pages 933-954, July.
    4. Jong-Wha Lee & Yung Chul Park & Kwanho Shin, 2003. "A Currency Union in East Asia," ISER Discussion Paper 0571, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    5. Shang-Jin Wei, 1996. "Intra-National versus International Trade: How Stubborn are Nations in Global Integration?," NBER Working Papers 5531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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