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Did the Euro Common Currency Increase or Decrease Business Cycle Synchronization for its Member Countries?

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  • William Miles
  • Chu‐Ping C. Vijverberg

Abstract

We use two variants of Markov switching models to assess changes in output synchronization since the creation of the euro. Out of eight eurozone countries investigated, only one—the Netherlands—has synchronization increased since euro adoption, supporting the ‘endogenous optimal currency area’ argument of Frankel and Rose. However, in three other cases, business cycle synchronization actually fell since the euro's creation. Thus the ‘endogeneity’ of the optimal currency area criteria can go both ways—adopting a common currency may increase synchronization for nations ready for a common currency, but it can lower synchronization for nations that are far from synchronized before monetary unification.

Suggested Citation

  • William Miles & Chu‐Ping C. Vijverberg, 2018. "Did the Euro Common Currency Increase or Decrease Business Cycle Synchronization for its Member Countries?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 85(339), pages 558-580, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:85:y:2018:i:339:p:558-580
    DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12201
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Uctum Merih & Uctum Remzi & Vijverberg Chu-Ping C., 2021. "The European growth synchronization through crises and structural changes," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(1), pages 1-17, February.
    2. Augusto Cerqua & Roberta Di Stefano & Guido Pellegrini, 2023. "What kind of region reaps the benefits of a currency union?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(3), pages 552-582, June.
    3. Krzysztof Beck & Ntokozo Patrick Nzimande, 2023. "Labor mobility and business cycle synchronization in Southern Africa," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 159-179, February.
    4. Palenzuela, Diego Rodriguez & Saiz, Lorena & Stoevsky, Grigor & Tóth, Máté & Warmedinger, Thomas & Grigoraș, Veaceslav, 2024. "The euro area business cycle and its drivers," Occasional Paper Series 354, European Central Bank.
    5. Agnieszka Gehringer & Jörg König, 2021. "Recent Patterns of Economic Alignment in the European (Monetary) Union," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-23, August.
    6. Rathke, Alexander & Streicher, Sina & Sturm, Jan-Egbert, 2022. "How similar are country- and sector-responses to common shocks within the euro area?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    7. Massimo Amato & Kako Nubukpo, 2020. "Una nuova moneta per gli stati dell'Africa dell'Ovest. Le condizioni teoriche e politiche della sua fattibilità (A new currency for West African states: The theoretical and political conditions of its feasibility)," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 73(289), pages 83-107.

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