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(A)-symétrie des cycles économiques dans la Communauté Economique des Etats de l'Afrique de l'Ouest (CEDEAO)
[(A) -Symmetry of business cycles in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)]

Author

Listed:
  • Zouri, Stéphane

Abstract

L’asymétrie des cycles constitue un obstacle majeur à la viabilité des unions monétaires. C’est pourquoi le présent article s’intéresse à la convergence des cycles économiques en Afrique de l’Ouest au regard de la volonté des Chefs d’Etat de la CEDEAO de créer une monnaie unique. Pour cela, l’article utilise une mesure de synchronicité et de similarité permettant d’analyser l’asymétrie des cycles. L’article est novateur car il vient pallier les limites liées à l’identification des chocs spécifiques issue des modèles vectoriels. En outre, la méthodologie utilisée permet de savoir comment l’asymétrie des cycles économiques varie période par période plutôt que d'être mesurée comme un seul coefficient de corrélation sur toute la période d'étude. Enfin, l’étude tient compte des changements au fur et à mesure que les pays maintiennent ou transforment leurs régimes monétaires. Les résultats montrent un faible degré de synchronicité et de similarité dans la zone. De plus, les résultats indiquent que l’entrée du Mali et de la Guinée-Bissau dans l’Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest Africaine (UEMOA) n’a pas accru leurs degrés de synchronisation et de similarité. Enfin, les résultats montrent que le Nigéria n’est pas responsable du faible degré de symétrie dans la zone.

Suggested Citation

  • Zouri, Stéphane, 2019. "(A)-symétrie des cycles économiques dans la Communauté Economique des Etats de l'Afrique de l'Ouest (CEDEAO)
    [(A) -Symmetry of business cycles in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOW
    ," MPRA Paper 95289, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:95289
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/95289/1/MPRA_paper_95289.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    synchronicité; similarité; union monétaire; CEDEAO;

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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