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Endogenous OCA Analysis and the Early Euro Experience

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  • Thomas D. Willett
  • Orawan Permpoon
  • Clas Wihlborg

Abstract

Abstract Some have argued that the endogenous responses to the formation of a currency area are so strong that one need not worry about optimum currency area conditions ex ante. We argue that this is much too strong a conclusion. We draw on a number of recent studies to evaluate the endogeneity experiences of the eurozone in three major areas; trade flows, business cycle synchronisation and structural reforms to improve labour and product market flexibility. Simple before-and-after comparisons are insufficient for analysis of endogeneity. The experiences of non-euro Western European economies suggest that broader trends also had considerable influence on trade and business cycle patterns. While trade rose substantially within the eurozone, it also rose with and among other European economies. We argue that political economy considerations tend to dampen the magnitude of endogeneity efforts on structural reforms and that meeting conditions for entry may be a more powerful mechanism in this than are subsequent endogenous responses. We also discuss a number of areas for further research. Copyright 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas D. Willett & Orawan Permpoon & Clas Wihlborg, 2010. "Endogenous OCA Analysis and the Early Euro Experience," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(7), pages 851-872, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:33:y:2010:i:7:p:851-872
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    Cited by:

    1. Ansgar Belke & Clemens Domnick & Daniel Gros, 2017. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the EMU: Core vs. Periphery," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 863-892, November.
    2. repec:kap:iaecre:v:19:y:2013:i:3:p:259-271 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. João Rebelo Barbosa & Rui Henrique Alves, 2011. "Divergent competitiveness in the eurozone and the optimum currency area theory," FEP Working Papers 436, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    4. Alberto Coco & Andrea Silvestrini, 2017. "The nature and propagation of shocks in the euro area: a comparative SVAR analysis," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1/2), pages 95-114.
    5. Petr Rozmahel & Ladislava Grochová & Marek Litzman, 2014. "The effect of asymmetries in fiscal policy conducts on business cycle correlation in the EU," WWWforEurope Working Papers series 62, WWWforEurope.
    6. Linyue Li & Nan Zhang & Thomas D. Willett, 2012. "Measuring macroeconomic and financial market interdependence: a critical survey," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 128-145, May.
    7. Filippo Cesarano, 2013. "The Optimum Currency Area Puzzle," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 19(3), pages 259-271, August.
    8. Fritz W. Scharpf, 2011. "Monetary Union, Fiscal Crisis and the Preemption of Democracy," Europe in Question Discussion Paper Series of the London School of Economics (LEQs) 6, London School of Economics / European Institute.
    9. Merih Uctum & Remzi Uctum & Chu-Ping C. Vijverberg, 2017. "The Eurozone Convergence through Crises and Structural Changes," EconomiX Working Papers 2017-38, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    10. Scharpf, Fritz W., 2011. "Monetary union, fiscal crisis and the preemption of democracy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 53448, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. João Rebelo Barbosa & Rui Henrique Alves, 2011. "The Euro Area Ten Years after Its Creation: (Divergent) Competitiveness and the Optimum Currency Area Theory," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(5), pages 605-629, December.
    12. Willett, Thomas D. & Srisorn, Nancy, 2014. "The political economy of the Euro crisis: Cognitive biases, faulty mental models, and time inconsistency," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 39-54.
    13. William Miles, 2015. "The East African Monetary Union: Is the Level of Business Cycle Synchronization Sufficient?," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 2(4), pages 115-125, November.

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