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A Market Microstructure Analysis of Foreign Exchange Intervention

  • Vitale, Paolo

We formulate a market microstructure model of exchange determination we employ to investigate the impact of foreign exchange intervention on exchange rates and on foreign exchange (FX) market conditions. With our formulation we show i) how foreign exchange intervention in°uences exchange rates via both a portfolio-balance and a signalling channel and ii) derive a series of testable implications which are coherent with a large body of empirical research. Our investigation also proposes some normative recommendations, as we show that central bank intervention can be destabilizing for the functioning of FX markets and that the route chosen for the implementation of o±cial intervention has important implications for its impact on exchange rates and on market conditions.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5468.

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Date of creation: Jan 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5468
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  1. Engel, Charles & West, Kenneth D., 2003. "Exchange rates and fundamentals," Working Paper Series 0248, European Central Bank.
  2. Richard Payne, 2001. "A Transaction Level Study of the Effects of Central Bank Intervention on Exchange Rates," FMG Discussion Papers dp355, Financial Markets Group.
  3. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 02-16, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  4. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Karen K. Lewis, 1993. "Does foreign exchange intervention signal future monetary policy?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Payne, Richard, 2003. "Informed trade in spot foreign exchange markets: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 307-329, December.
  6. Stracca, Livio, 2006. "A speed limit monetary policy rule for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0600, European Central Bank.
  7. Campolmi, Alessia & Faia, Ester, 2006. "Cyclical inflation divergence and different labor market institutions in the EMU," Working Paper Series 0619, European Central Bank.
  8. António Afonso & Vítor Gaspar, 2006. "Excess burden and the cost of inefficiency in public services provision," Working Papers w200609, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  9. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 170-180, February.
  10. Bjonnes, Geir Hoidal & Rime, Dagfinn, 2005. "Dealer behavior and trading systems in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 571-605, March.
  11. Bhattacharya, Utpal & Weller, Paul, 1997. "The advantage to hiding one's hand: Speculation and central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 251-277, July.
  12. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Global financial transmission of monetary policy shocks," Working Paper Series 0616, European Central Bank.
  13. Michael Ehrmann, 2011. "Inflation Developments and Perceptions after the Euro Cash Changeover," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(1), pages 33-58, 02.
  14. Sweeney, Richard J., 1997. "Do central banks lose on foreign-exchange intervention? A review article," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(11-12), pages 1667-1684, December.
  15. Christopher J. Neely, 2001. "The practice of central bank intervention: looking under the hood," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 1-10.
  16. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," Working Papers 03.02, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  17. Welz, Peter, 2006. "Assessing predetermined expectations in the standard sticky-price model: a Bayesian approach," Working Paper Series 0621, European Central Bank.
  18. Kathryn Dominguez & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1990. "Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Work?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 16, March.
  19. Tsutomu Watanabe, 1992. "The signaling effect of foreign exchange intervention: the case of Japan," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
  20. Antonio Fatas & Ilian Mihov & Andrew K. Rose, 2004. "Quantitative Goals for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 10846, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Richard K. Lyons., 1993. "Tests of Microstructural Hypotheses in the Foreign Exchange Market," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-230, University of California at Berkeley.
  22. Vitale, Paolo, 1999. "Sterilised central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 245-267, December.
  23. Tsutomu Watanabe, 1992. "The signaling effect of foreign exchange intervention: the case of Japan," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 258-286.
  24. Michael W. Klein & Eric S. Rosengren, 1991. "Foreign exchange intervention as a signal of monetary policy," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue May, pages 39-50.
  25. Kenneth A. Froot & Tarun Ramadorai, 2005. "Currency Returns, Intrinsic Value, and Institutional-Investor Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1535-1566, 06.
  26. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2004. "A New Micro Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 10379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2006. "Trends and cycles in the euro area: how much heterogeneity and should we worry about it?," Working Paper Series 0595, European Central Bank.
  28. Lewis, Karen K, 1995. "Are Foreign Exchange Intervention and Monetary Policy Related, and Does It Really Matter?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(2), pages 185-214, April.
  29. Popper, Helen & Montgomery, John D., 2001. "Information sharing and central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 295-316, December.
  30. Breedon, Francis & Vitale, Paolo, 2004. "An Empirical Study of Liquidity and Information Effects of Order Flow on Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4586, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  31. Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2006. "Forecasting economic aggregates by disaggregates," Working Paper Series 0589, European Central Bank.
  32. Marie Diron, 2008. "Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 371-390.
  33. Paolo Vitale, 2007. "A Guided Tour Of The Market Microstructure Approach To Exchange Rate Determination," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 903-934, December.
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