IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedbne/y1991imayp39-50.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Foreign exchange intervention as a signal of monetary policy

Author

Listed:
  • Michael W. Klein
  • Eric S. Rosengren

Abstract

Recent experience with exchange rate management has rekindled interest in the efficacy of foreign exchange intervention. While there is broad evidence that sterilized intervention has no effect on the exchange rate through a portfolio balance channel, less evidence exists on the signalling role of intervention. This article considers the signalling role of intervention for the United States and West Germany between the 1985 Plaza Accord and the October 1987 stock market crash. ; An examination of the data shows that intervention observed by the foreign exchange market did not precede changes in monetary policy in a proximate or consistent fashion. Thus the study concludes that, after the fact, intervention was not a signal of subsequent monetary policy. The study also explores the possibility that during this period participants in the foreign exchange market viewed intervention as a signal. While the daily response of the change in the deutsche mark/dollar exchange rate showed a significant effect of intervention in the early part of this sample period, the effect eroded over time as monetary authorities failed to back up intervention with monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael W. Klein & Eric S. Rosengren, 1991. "Foreign exchange intervention as a signal of monetary policy," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue May, pages 39-50.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbne:y:1991:i:may:p:39-50
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/neer/neer1991/neer391c.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kathryn Dominguez & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1991. "Does foreign exchange intervention matter? disentangling the portfolio and expectations effects for the mark," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    2. Batten, Dallas S. & Thornton, Daniel L., 1984. "Discount rate changes and the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 279-292, December.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1982. "In search of the exchange risk premium: A six-currency test assuming mean-variance optimization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 255-274, January.
    4. Engel, Charles & Rodrigues, Anthony P, 1989. "Tests of International CAPM with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 119-138, April-Jun.
    5. Kathleen Hope Brown, 1981. "Effects of Changes in the Discount Rate on the Foreign Exchange Value of the Dollar: 1973 to 1978," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 96(3), pages 551-558.
    6. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    7. Lewis, Karen K., 1988. "Inflation risk and asset market disturbances: The mean-variance model revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 273-288, September.
    8. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1984. "On the effects of sterilized intervention : An analysis of weekly data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 133-150, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andreas M. Fischer, 2000. "Do Interventions Smooth Interest Rates?," Working Papers 00.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    2. Karen K. Lewis, 1993. "Are Forign Exchange Intervention and Monetary Policy Related and Does it Really Matter?," NBER Working Papers 4377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Juann H. Hung, 1995. "Intervention strategies and exchange rate volatility: a noise trading perspective," Research Paper 9515, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Olga Loiseau-Aslanidi, 2011. "Determinants and Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Market Intervention in Georgia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(4), pages 75-95, July.
    5. Richard T. Baillie & William P. Osterberg, 1991. "The risk premium in forward foreign exchange markets and G-3 central bank intervention: evidence of daily effects, 1985-1990," Working Paper 9109, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    6. Vitale, Paolo, 2006. "A Market Microstructure Analysis of Foreign Exchange Intervention," CEPR Discussion Papers 5468, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Richard T. Baillie & Owen F. Humpage, 1992. "Post-Louvre intervention: did target zones stabilize the dollar?," Working Paper 9203, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    8. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Vitale, Paolo, 1999. "Sterilised central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 245-267, December.
    10. Thomas Willett, 1999. "Developments in the Political Economy of Policy Coordination," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 221-253, May.
    11. Maurice Obstfeld, 1995. "Intenational Currency Experience: New Lessons and Lessons Relearned," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 119-220.
    12. Sweeney, Richard J., 2007. "Fed intervention, dollar appreciation, and systematic risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 167-192, March.
    13. William P. Osterberg & Rebecca Wetmore Humes, 1995. "More on the differences between reported and actual U.S. central bank foreign exchange intervention," Working Paper 9501, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    14. William P. Osterberg, 1995. "Can foreign exchange intervention signal monetary policy changes?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue May.
    15. Reeves, Silke Fabian, 1997. "Exchange rate management when sterilized interventions represent signals of monetary policy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 339-360.
    16. Neil, Beattie & Fillion, Jean-Fran├žois, 1999. "An Intraday Analysis of the Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Intervention," Staff Working Papers 99-4, Bank of Canada.
    17. Richard T. Baillie & William P. Osterberg, 1998. "Central bank intervention and overnight uncovered interest rate parity," Working Paper 9823, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    18. Vitale, Paolo, 2006. "A Critical Appraisal of Recent Developments in the Analysis of Foreign Exchange Intervention," CEPR Discussion Papers 5729, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Baillie, Richard T. & Osterberg, William P., 2000. "Deviations from daily uncovered interest rate parity and the role of intervention," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 363-379, December.
    20. William P. Osterberg, 1997. "Does intervention explain the forward discount puzzle?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q IV, pages 24-31.
    21. Olga Loiseau-Aslanidi, 2011. "Determinants and Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Market Intervention in Georgia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(4), pages 75-95, July.
    22. Baillie, Richard T. & Osterberg, William P., 1997. "Why do central banks intervene?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 909-919, December.
    23. Owen F. Humpage, 1998. "The Federal Reserve as an informed foreign-exchange trader," Working Paper 9815, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedbne:y:1991:i:may:p:39-50. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Catherine Spozio). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/frbbous.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.