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Inflation targeting and business cycle synchronization

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  • Flood, Robert P.
  • Rose, Andrew K.

Abstract

Inflation targeting seems to have a small but positive effect on the synchronization of business cycles; countries that target inflation seem to have cycles that move slightly more closely with foreign cycles. Thus the advent of inflation targeting does not explain the decoupling of global business cycles, for two reasons. Indeed business cycles have not in fact become less synchronized across countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 2010. "Inflation targeting and business cycle synchronization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 704-727, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:29:y:2010:i:4:p:704-727
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    1. repec:eee:empfin:v:44:y:2017:i:c:p:108-124 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Adolfo Barajas & Ralph Chami & Christian H Ebeke & Sampawende J Tapsoba, 2012. "Workers’ Remittances; An Overlooked Channel of International Business Cycle Transmission?," IMF Working Papers 12/251, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Mathy, Gabriel P. & Meissner, Christopher M., 2011. "Business cycle co-movement: Evidence from the Great Depression," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 362-372.
    4. Chang, Koyin & Kim, Yoonbai & Tomljanovich, Marc & Ying, Yung-Hsiang, 2013. "Do political parties foster business cycles? An examination of developed economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 212-226.
    5. Bedri Kamil Onur Tas, 2010. "Determinants of Time-Varying Sensitivity of MENA Countries to Global Shocks: A State Space Approach," Working Papers 530, Economic Research Forum, revised 06 Jan 2010.
    6. Radoslaw Kurach, 2012. "Stocks, Commodities And Business Cycle Fluctuations – Seeking The Diversification Benefits," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 7(4), pages 101-116, December.
    7. Bohl, Martin T. & Michaelis, Philip & Siklos, Pierre L., 2016. "Austerity and recovery: Exchange rate regime choice, economic growth, and financial crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 195-207.
    8. Petr Rozmahel & Ladislava Grochová & Marek Litzman, 2014. "The effect of asymmetries in fiscal policy conducts on business cycle correlation in the EU," WWWforEurope Working Papers series 62, WWWforEurope.
    9. Philip Arestis & Peter Phelps, 2016. "Endogeneity Analysis of Output Synchronization in the Current and Prospective EMU," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(3), pages 525-543, May.
    10. Erden, Lutfi & Ozkan, Ibrahim, 2014. "Determinants of international transmission of business cycles to Turkish economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 383-390.
    11. Wälti, Sébastien, 2010. "No decoupling, more interdependence: business cycle comovements between advanced and emerging economies," MPRA Paper 20869, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Sébastien Wälti, 2012. "The myth of decoupling," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(26), pages 3407-3419, September.
    13. Dooyeon Cho & Dong-Eun Rhee, 2015. "An assessment of inflation targeting in a quantitative monetary business cycle framework: evidence from four early adopters," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(32), pages 3395-3413, July.
    14. M. Ayhan Kose & Prakash Loungani & Marco E. Terrones, 2013. "From the Global to the National Cycle: An Intricate Liaison," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 370-402, August.
    15. Berger, Tino & Richter, Julia, 2017. "What has caused global business cycle decoupling: Smaller shocks or reduced sensitivity?," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 300, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    16. Thomas D. Willett & Orawan Permpoon & Clas Wihlborg, 2010. "Endogenous OCA Analysis and the Early Euro Experience," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(7), pages 851-872, July.
    17. Antonio Pesce, 2013. "Is Decoupling in action?," ERSA conference papers ersa13p1252, European Regional Science Association.
    18. Rados³aw Kurach, 2012. "Seeking The Diversification Benefits With Foreign Equities And Commodities – The Case Of Polish Investor," "e-Finanse", University of Information Technology and Management, Institute of Financial Research and Analysis, vol. 8(3), pages 26-36, October.
    19. Westerlund, Joakim & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2012. "Does the choice of estimator matter when forecasting returns?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2632-2640.
    20. repec:voj:journl:v:64:y:2017:i:3:p:337-352 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Wälti, Sébastien, 2009. "Business cycle synchronicity, amplitude and the euro: one size does not yet fit all," MPRA Paper 21065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Minea, Alexandru & Tapsoba, René, 2014. "Does inflation targeting improve fiscal discipline?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 185-203.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP Bilateral Empirical Data Business cycle Synchronization Insulation Regime;

    JEL classification:

    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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