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Business cycles, international trade and capital flows: evidence from Latin America

Author

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale

    (Brunel University)

  • Alessandro Girardi

    (Italian National Institute of Statistics)

Abstract

This paper adopts a flexible framework to assess both short- and long-run business cycle linkages between the Latin American (LA) bloc and the four largest economies in the world (namely the US, the Euro area, Japan and China) over the period 1980:I–2011:IV. The result indicates that the LA region is largely dependent on external developments, especially in the years after the great recession of 2008 and 2009. The trade channel appears to be the most important source of business cycle co-movement, whilst capital flows are found to have a limited role, especially in the very short run.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alessandro Girardi, 2016. "Business cycles, international trade and capital flows: evidence from Latin America," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 231-252, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:50:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s00181-015-0928-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-015-0928-9
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    3. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & De Santis, Roberta & Girardi, Alessandro, 2015. "Trade intensity and output synchronisation: On the endogeneity properties of EMU," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 154-163.
    4. Shen, Jiancheng & Selover, David D. & Li, Chao & Yousefi, Hamed, 2022. "An ocean apart? The effects of US business cycles on Chinese business cycles," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 677-698.
    5. Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority, 2018. "Macroeconomic and distributional effects of globalisation," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and deglobalisation, volume 100, pages 311-319, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Miles, William, 2017. "The impact of the US on Latin American business cycles: A new approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 320-331.
    7. Solomon Abayomi Olakojo, 2018. "Foreign Trade and International Financial Flows: Implications for Economic Stability in the Selected ECOWAS Countries," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 22(1), pages 63-103, Winter.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International business cycle; Latin America; VAR models; Trade and financial linkages;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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