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Inference regarding multiple structural changes in linear models with endogenous regressors

  • Hall, Alastair R.
  • Han, Sanggohn
  • Boldea, Otilia

This paper considers the linear model with endogenous regressors and multiple changes in the parameters at unknown times. It is shown that minimization of a Generalized Method of Moments criterion yields inconsistent estimators of the break fractions, but minimization of the Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS) criterion yields consistent estimators of these parameters. We develop a methodology for estimation and inference of the parameters of the model based on 2SLS. The analysis covers the cases where the reduced form is either stable or unstable. The methodology is illustrated via an application to the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the US.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 170 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 281-302

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:170:y:2012:i:2:p:281-302
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  1. Bruce E. Hansen, 1998. "Testing for Structural Change in Conditional Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 310., Boston College Department of Economics.
  2. Pierre Perron & Yohei Yamamoto, 2008. "Estimating and Testing Multiple Structural Changes in Models with Endogenous Regressors," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2008-017, Boston University - Department of Economics.
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  4. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2008. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: From Sticky Inflation to Sticky Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 667-699, 06.
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  6. Ghysels, E & Hall, A., 1988. "A Test For Structural Stability Of Euler Conditions Parameters Estimated Via The Generalized Methods Of Moments Estimators," Cahiers de recherche 8837, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  7. Jushan Bai & Haiqiang Chen & Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Seraph Xin Wang, 2008. "Generic consistency of the break-point estimators under specification errors in a multiple-break model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 11(2), pages 287-307, 07.
  8. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  9. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
  10. Kleibergen, Frank & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2009. "Weak Instrument Robust Tests in GMM and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(3), pages 293-311.
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  12. Hall, Alastair R. & Inoue, Atsushi & Peixe, Fernanda P.M., 2003. "Covariance Matrix Estimation And The Limiting Behavior Of The Overidentifying Restrictions Test In The Presence Of Neglected Structural Instability," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(06), pages 962-983, December.
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  14. Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2005. "Does Labor's Share Drive Inflation?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 297-312, April.
  15. Chirok Han & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2005. "GMM with Many Moment Conditions," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1515, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  16. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Critical values for multiple structural change tests," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 72-78, 06.
  17. Zhongjun Qu & Pierre Perron, 2005. "Estimating and testing structural changes in multivariate regressions," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-012, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  18. Perron, Pierre & Qu, Zhongjun, 2006. "Estimating restricted structural change models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 373-399, October.
  19. Jinyong Hahn & Atsushi Inoue, 2002. "A Monte Carlo Comparison Of Various Asymptotic Approximations To The Distribution Of Instrumental Variables Estimators," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 309-336.
  20. Hall, Alastair R & Sen, Amit, 1999. "Structural Stability Testing in Models Estimated by Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(3), pages 335-48, July.
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