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Inference regarding multiple structural changes in linear models with endogenous regressors

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  • Hall, Alastair R.
  • Han, Sanggohn
  • Boldea, Otilia

Abstract

This paper considers the linear model with endogenous regressors and multiple changes in the parameters at unknown times. It is shown that minimization of a Generalized Method of Moments criterion yields inconsistent estimators of the break fractions, but minimization of the Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS) criterion yields consistent estimators of these parameters. We develop a methodology for estimation and inference of the parameters of the model based on 2SLS. The analysis covers the cases where the reduced form is either stable or unstable. The methodology is illustrated via an application to the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the US.

Suggested Citation

  • Hall, Alastair R. & Han, Sanggohn & Boldea, Otilia, 2012. "Inference regarding multiple structural changes in linear models with endogenous regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(2), pages 281-302.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:170:y:2012:i:2:p:281-302
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2012.05.006
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    12. Hall, Alastair R. & Inoue, Atsushi & Peixe, Fernanda P.M., 2003. "Covariance Matrix Estimation And The Limiting Behavior Of The Overidentifying Restrictions Test In The Presence Of Neglected Structural Instability," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(06), pages 962-983, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Boldea, Otilia & Hall, Alastair R., 2013. "Estimation and inference in unstable nonlinear least squares models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 172(1), pages 158-167.
    2. Abi Morshed, Alaa & Andreou, E. & Boldea, Otilia, 2016. "Structural Break Tests Robust to Regression Misspecification," Discussion Paper 2016-019, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    3. Somayeh Mardaneh, 2012. "How Do Oil Shocks A¤ect the Structural Stability of Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve?," Discussion Papers in Economics 12/20, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
    4. Cornea, A. & Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D., 2012. "Behavioral Heterogeneity in U.S. Inflation Dynamics," CeNDEF Working Papers 12-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    5. Pierre Perron & Tatsushi Oka, 2011. "Testing for Common Breaks in a Multiple Equations System," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2011-057, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    6. Rothfelder, Mario & Boldea, Otilia, 2016. "Testing for a Threshold in Models with Endogenous Regressors," Discussion Paper 2016-029, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    7. Neil Kellard & Denise Osborn & Jerry Coakley & Alastair R. Hall & Denise R. Osborn & Nikolaos Sakkas, 2015. "Structural Break Inference Using Information Criteria in Models Estimated by Two-Stage Least Squares," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 741-762, September.
    8. Chen, Bin, 2015. "Modeling and testing smooth structural changes with endogenous regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(1), pages 196-215.
    9. Otilia Boldea & Alastair R. Hall, 2013. "Testing structural stability in macroeconometric models," Chapters,in: Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 9, pages 206-228 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Ping Yu & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2014. "Threshold Regression with Endogeneity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1966, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    11. Merih Uctum & Remzi Uctum & Chu-Ping C. Vijverberg, 2017. "The Eurozone Convergence through Crises and Structural Changes," EconomiX Working Papers 2017-38, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    12. Bertille Antoine & Otilia Boldea, 2015. "Efficient Inference with Time-Varying Information and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Discussion Papers dp15-04, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University, revised 25 Aug 2016.
    13. repec:taf:emetrv:v:36:y:2017:i:6-9:p:667-698 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:bla:jtsera:v:38:y:2017:i:4:p:552-590 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Yu, Ping, 2015. "Adaptive estimation of the threshold point in threshold regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 189(1), pages 83-100.
    16. Hall Alastair & Sakkas Nikolaos, 2013. "Approximate p-Values of Certain Tests Involving Hypotheses About Multiple Breaks," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 53-67, July.
    17. Bertille Antoine & Otilia, 2015. "Inference in linear models with structural changes and mixed identification strength," Discussion Papers dp15-05, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    18. Alastair R. Hall & Denise R. Osborn & Nikolaos Sakkas, 2017. "The asymptotic behaviour of the residual sum of squares in models with multiple break points," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6-9), pages 667-698, October.
    19. Elliott, Graham & Müller, Ulrich K., 2014. "Pre and post break parameter inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 180(2), pages 141-157.
    20. Yu, Ping, 2013. "Inconsistency of 2SLS estimators in threshold regression with endogeneity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 532-536.
    21. Qian, Junhui & Su, Liangjun, 2014. "Structural change estimation in time series regressions with endogenous variables," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 415-421.
    22. Bertille Antoine & Otilia Boldea, 2014. "Efficient Inference with Time-Varying Identification Strength," Discussion Papers dp14-03, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural change; Multiple break points; Instrumental variables estimation;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General

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