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Generic consistency of the break-point estimators under specification errors in a multiple-break model

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  • Jushan Bai
  • Haiqiang Chen
  • Terence Tai-Leung Chong
  • Seraph Xin Wang

Abstract

This paper considers the estimation of multiple-structural-break models under specification errors. A common example in economics is that the true model is measured in level, but a linear-log model is estimated. We show that, under specification errors, if there are more than one break points and if a single-break model is estimated, the estimated break point is consistent for one of the true break points. This consistency result applies to models with multiple regressors where some or all of the regressors are misspecified. Another important contribution of this paper is that we have constructed a Sup-Wald test whose limiting distribution is not affected by model misspecification. Using this robust test, we show that the break points can be estimated sequentially one at a time. Simulation evidence and an empirical application are provided. Copyright © 2008 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Royal Economic Society 2008

Suggested Citation

  • Jushan Bai & Haiqiang Chen & Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Seraph Xin Wang, 2008. "Generic consistency of the break-point estimators under specification errors in a multiple-break model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 11(2), pages 287-307, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:ect:emjrnl:v:11:y:2008:i:2:p:287-307
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    Cited by:

    1. Yu, Ping, 2015. "Consistency of the least squares estimator in threshold regression with endogeneity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 41-46.
    2. repec:bla:intfin:v:20:y:2017:i:1:p:64-91 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Abi Morshed, Alaa & Andreou, E. & Boldea, Otilia, 2016. "Structural Break Tests Robust to Regression Misspecification," Discussion Paper 2016-019, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    4. Koo, Bonsoo & Seo, Myung Hwan, 2015. "Structural-break models under mis-specification: Implications for forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(1), pages 166-181.
    5. Chong, Terence Tai Leung & Pang, Tianxiao & Zhang, Danna & Liang, Yanling, 2017. "Structural change in non-stationary AR(1) models," MPRA Paper 80510, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Hall Alastair & Sakkas Nikolaos, 2013. "Approximate p-Values of Certain Tests Involving Hypotheses About Multiple Breaks," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 53-67, July.
    7. Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Chi-Leung Wong & Venus Liew, 2006. "Estimation of the Autoregressive Order in the Presence of Measurement Errors," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(12), pages 1-10.
    8. Chong, Terence Tai Leung & Chen, Haiqiang & Wong, Tsz Nga & Yan, Isabel K., 2015. "Estimation and Inference of Threshold Regression Models with Measurement Errors," MPRA Paper 68457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Chong Terence T. L. & He Qing & Hinich Melvin J, 2008. "The Nonlinear Dynamics of Foreign Reserves and Currency Crises," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(4), pages 1-18, December.
    10. Huang, MeiChi, 2014. "Bubble-like housing boom–bust cycles: Evidence from the predictive power of households’ expectations," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 2-16.
    11. MeiChi Huang & LinYing Yeh, 2015. "Should the Fed take extra action for the recent housing bubble? Evidence from asymmetric transitory shocks," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(4), pages 762-781, October.
    12. Hall, Alastair R. & Han, Sanggohn & Boldea, Otilia, 2012. "Inference regarding multiple structural changes in linear models with endogenous regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 281-302.
    13. Huang, MeiChi & Chiang, Hsiu-Hsuan, 2017. "An early alarm system for housing bubbles," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 34-49.
    14. Terence Tai-Leung Chong, 2007. "Estimating the Fractionally Integrated Model with a Break in the Differencing Parameter," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(67), pages 1-10.
    15. Wan, Jer-Yuh & Kao, Chung-Wei, 2009. "Price discovery in Taiwan's foreign exchange market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 77-93, February.
    16. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2007:i:67:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Chen, Haiqiang & Chong, Terence Tai Leung & Bai, Jushan, 2012. "Theory and Applications of TAR Model with Two Threshold Variables," MPRA Paper 54527, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2006:i:12:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS

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