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Desperate Times Call For Desperate Measures: Government Spending Multipliers In Hard Times

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Listed:
  • Sokbae Lee
  • Yuan Liao
  • Myung Hwan Seo
  • Youngki Shin

Abstract

We investigate state‐dependent effects of fiscal multipliers and allow for endogenous sample splitting to determine whether the U.S. economy is in a slack state. When the endogenized slack state is estimated as the period of the unemployment rate higher than about 12%, the estimated cumulative multipliers are significantly larger during slack periods than nonslack periods and are above unity. We also examine the possibility of time‐varying regimes of slackness and find that our empirical results are robust under a more flexible framework. Our estimation results point out the importance of the heterogenous effects of fiscal policy and shed light on the prospect of fiscal policy in response to economic shocks from the current COVID‐19 pandemic. (JEL C32, E62, H20, H62)

Suggested Citation

  • Sokbae Lee & Yuan Liao & Myung Hwan Seo & Youngki Shin, 2020. "Desperate Times Call For Desperate Measures: Government Spending Multipliers In Hard Times," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(4), pages 1949-1957, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:58:y:2020:i:4:p:1949-1957
    DOI: 10.1111/ecin.12919
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    Cited by:

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    2. Li, Rong & Wei, Ning, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and government spending multipliers," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    3. Baihua Yuan & Wang Leiling & Hayot Berk Saydaliev & Vishal Dagar & Ángel Acevedo-Duque, 2022. "Testing the impact of fiscal policies for economic recovery: does monetary policy act as catalytic tool for economic Survival," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 2215-2235, November.
    4. Rubana Mahjabeen & Praopan Pratoomchat, 2021. "How effective is the 2020 stimulus check in Minnesota and Wisconsin counties?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1655-1665.
    5. Daniel Stodt, 2025. "Non-Linearity of Government Spending Multiplier: The Case of a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 2025/3, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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