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Some shocking aspects of EMU enlargement

Author

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  • Frenkel, Michael
  • Nickel, Christiane
  • Schmidt, Günter

Abstract

This paper uses a structural vector autoregression to examine differences in demand and supply shocks and the response to these shocks between EMU member countries and three other groups of countries. The first group includes non-EMU EU countries, the second group EFTA countries and the third group central and eastern European countries which seek EU membership over the next years. Our results suggest that, so far, EMU enlargement towards central and eastern European countries would involve significantly higher costs than EMU enlargement towards countries of the other two groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Frenkel, Michael & Nickel, Christiane & Schmidt, Günter, 1999. "Some shocking aspects of EMU enlargement," Research Notes 99-4, Deutsche Bank Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:dbrrns:994
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/40260/1/304791326.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, February.
    2. Stefaan Ide & Philippe Moës, 2004. "Asymetric growth and inflation developments in the acceding countries: a new assessment," Working Paper Research 63, National Bank of Belgium.
    3. Fidrmuc, Jan, 2001. "Migration and adjustment to shocks in transition economies," ZEI Working Papers B 23-2001, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    4. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006. "Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
    5. Frenkel, Michael & Nickel, Christiane, 2005. "New European Union members on their way to adopting the Euro: An analysis of macroeconomic disturbances," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 303-320, February.
    6. Attila Csajbók (ed.) & Ágnes Csermely (ed.), 2002. "Adopting the euro in Hungary: expected costs, benefits and timing," MNB Occasional Papers 2002/24, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    7. Philipp Maier & Maarten Hendrikx, 2002. "Implications of EMU enlargement for European monetary policy: A political economy view," Macroeconomics 0207007, EconWPA.
    8. János Gács, 2003. "Transition, EU Accession and Structural Convergence," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 30(3), pages 271-303, September.
    9. Raoul Lättemäe, 2003. "EMU Accession Issues in Baltic Countries," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp17a, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 May 2003.
    10. Jérôme Trotignon, 2005. "Les pays d'Europe Centrale et Orientale sont-ils fortement exposés aux chocs sectoriels et géographiques vis-à-vis de la zone euro ?," Post-Print halshs-00161687, HAL.
    11. Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2013. "Similar GDP-inflation cycles. An application to CEE countries and the euro area," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, pages 124-144.
    12. Horvath, Julius & Ratfai, Attila, 2004. "Supply and demand shocks in accession countries to the Economic and Monetary Union," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 202-211, June.
    13. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2003. "Similarity of supply and demand shocks between the euro area and the CEECs," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 313-334, September.
    14. Jan Fidrmuc, 2002. "Migration and Regional Adjustment and Asymmetric Shocks in Transition Economies," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 441, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    15. Michael Frenkel & Christiane Nickel, 2005. "How Symmetric are the Shocks and the Shock Adjustment Dynamics between the Euro Area and Central and Eastern European Countries?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 53-74, March.
    16. Igor Velickovski, 2013. "Assessing independent monetary policy in small, open and euroized countries: evidence from Western Balkan," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 137-156, August.
    17. Schweickert, Rainer, 2001. "Assessing the advantages of EMU-enlargement for the EU and the accession countries: a comparative indicator approach," Kiel Working Papers 1080, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    18. Süppel, Ralph, 2003. "Comparing economic dynamics in the EU and CEE accession countries," Working Paper Series 267, European Central Bank.
    19. Igor Veličkovski & Aleksandar Stojkov, 2014. "Is the European integration speeding up the economic convergence process of the Central and South-Eastern European countries? A shock perspective," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 287-321, May.
    20. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2004. "A meta-analysis of business cycle correlation between the euro area and CEECs : What do we know - and who cares?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    European Monetary Integration; International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions;

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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