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L'ancrage de l'Europe centrale et orientale à l'Union européenne

Author

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  • Mathilde Maurel
  • Laurence Boone

Abstract

[eng] Pegging the CEECs exchange rates to the euro can be assessed by using the criteria for entering the EMU (European Monetary Union). This approach is explicitly taking into account the process of enlargement started in June 1993 in Copenhagen, where a subset of CEECs was selected for admission into the EU. Fiscal discipline, implied by the Maastricht criteria, enhanced the transition process. But the question of whether pegging the currency contributes to further stabilise inflation can be asked only when the economic recovery resumes, and when inflation does not result mainly from the relative prices adjustment. The analysis of business cycles correlations helps to answer that question. The correlations of industrial production and unemployment cycles in the CEECs and the EU, point towards a deeper integration of the CEECs with Germany than with the EU. They also em­phasise that pegging the currencies is a good policy option for Central European Countries. [fre] La question de l'ancrage des monnaies des PECO à l'euro peut être envisagée sous l'angle de leur participation à une phase ultérieure de l'Union économique et monétaire (UEM). L'avantage de cette approche est de tenir compte de manière explicite du processus d'élargissement qui s'est traduit, lors du sommet de Copen­hague, en juin 1993, par la désignation des pays susceptibles d'entrer dans l'UE. La discipline, imposée dans certains cas par la référence implicite à l'UEM, a ac­compagné favorablement le processus de transition. Mais c'est seulement lorsque la croissance redevient positive, et que l'inflation ne résulte plus essentiellement de l'ajustement des prix relatifs, que l'on peut se demander si l'ancrage des monnaies peut contribuer à la stabiliser encore davantage. L'analyse de la corrélation des cycles, qui s'inspire de la théorie des zones monétaires optimales (ZMO), fournit le cadre théorique pour répondre à cette question. Mesurée à partir de taux de chô­mage ou d'indices de production industrielle, elle souligne une proximité des PECO avec l'Allemagne, plus importante qu'avec l'Union européenne, et conclut que l'an­crage des monnaies est une option souhaitable pour les pays d'Europe centrale.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathilde Maurel & Laurence Boone, 1999. "L'ancrage de l'Europe centrale et orientale à l'Union européenne," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 50(6), pages 1123-1137.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1999_num_50_6_410136
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.1999.410136
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1999.410136
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    Cited by:

    1. Olivier Damette & Mathilde Maurel & Michael A. Stemmer, 2016. "What does it take to grow out of recession? An error-correction approach towards growth convergence of European and transition countries," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 16041, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    2. Jérôme Trotignon, 2005. "Les pays d'Europe Centrale et Orientale sont-ils fortement exposés aux chocs sectoriels et géographiques vis-à-vis de la zone euro ?," Post-Print halshs-00161687, HAL.
    3. Miotti, Luis Egidio & Plihon, Dominique & Quenan, Carlos, 2002. "Euro and the financial relations between Latin America and Europe: medium- and long-term implications," Macroeconomía del Desarrollo 13, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    4. Jan Babetskii, 2004. "Ladhésion des Peco (Pays dEurope Centrale et Orientale) à l'Union européenne et l'endogénéité des chocs d'offre et de demande," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 163(2), pages 33-49.
    5. Jérôme Trotignon, 2003. "EMU enlargement towards CEEC’s : risks of sector-based and geographic asymmetric shocks," Working Papers 0309, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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