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Global versus Country-Specific Shocks and International Business Cycles

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Abstract

This paper documents the relative importance of global and country-specific shocks for international business cycles. For this purpose, we rely on a symmetric two-country, dynamic, general-equilibrium model with costly, incomplete, international financial markets. We also relate exogenous technologies and government expenditures to unobservable common and idiosynchratic components, and apply a Kalman filter to extract the associated global and country-specific shocks. We show that the baseline parametrization of the model, including all shocks, closely matches the cyclical fluctuations of key macroeconomic variables for the United States and a non-US aggregate over the post-1975 period. We then experiment alternative parametrizations, isolating the effects of each shock, and find that country-specific technology shocks constitute a prime determinant of international business cycles. Also, global technology shocks have marginal contributions, whereas global and country-specific government-expenditure shocks have negligible effects on cyclical fluctuations.

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  • Michel Normandin & Bruno Powo Fosso, 2005. "Global versus Country-Specific Shocks and International Business Cycles," Cahiers de recherche 05-07, HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée.
  • Handle: RePEc:iea:carech:0507
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    Cited by:

    1. Enrique Moral-Benito & Luis Servén, 2015. "Testing weak exogeneity in cointegrated panels," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(30), pages 3216-3228, June.
    2. Marek Lubiński, 2007. "International Business Cycle," Contemporary Economics, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, vol. 1(2), June.
    3. Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J., 2009. "On the international transmission of technology shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 45-59, June.
    4. Zeno Enders & Gernot J. Mueller, 2006. "S-Curve Redux: On the International Transmission of Technology Shocks," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/36, European University Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    General Equilibrium; Kalman Filter; Symmetric Economies.;

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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