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Validating multiple structural change models : A case study

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  • Kleiber, Christian
  • Zeileis, Achim

Abstract

In a recent article, Bai and Perron (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics) present a comprehensive discussion of computational aspects of multiple structural change models along with several empirical examples. Here, we report on the results of a replication study using the R statistical software package. We are able to verify most of their findings; however, some confidence intervals associated with breakpoints cannot be reproduced. These confidence intervals require computation of the quantiles of a nonstandard distribution, the distribution of the argmax functional of a certain stochastic process. Interestingly, the difficulties appear to be due to numerical problems in GAUSS, the software package used by Bai and Perron.

Suggested Citation

  • Kleiber, Christian & Zeileis, Achim, 2004. "Validating multiple structural change models : A case study," Technical Reports 2004,34, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb475:200434
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jushan Bai, 1997. "Estimation Of A Change Point In Multiple Regression Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 551-563, November.
    2. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    3. Zeileis, Achim & Leisch, Friedrich & Hornik, Kurt & Kleiber, Christian, 2002. "strucchange: An R Package for Testing for Structural Change in Linear Regression Models," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 7(i02).
    4. Hansen, Bruce E., 2000. "Testing for structural change in conditional models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 93-115, July.
    5. B. D. McCullough & H. D. Vinod, 2003. "Verifying the Solution from a Nonlinear Solver: A Case Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 873-892, June.
    6. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    7. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    8. Cribari-Neto, Francisco & Zarkos, Spyros G, 1999. "R: Yet Another Econometric Programming Environment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 319-329, May-June.
    9. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
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    Cited by:

    1. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2010. "Tracking U.S. inflation expectations with domestic and global indicators," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1340-1356, November.
    2. Kholodilin Konstantin Arkadievich & Siliverstovs Boriss, 2006. "On the Forecasting Properties of the Alternative Leading Indicators for the German GDP: Recent Evidence," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 226(3), pages 234-259, June.
    3. Zeileis, Achim, 2004. "Econometric Computing with HC and HAC Covariance Matrix Estimators," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 11(i10).
    4. González Andrés & Teräsvirta Timo, 2008. "Modelling Autoregressive Processes with a Shifting Mean," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-28, March.
    5. Aboura, Sofiane & Chevallier, Julien, 2013. "Leverage vs. feedback: Which Effect drives the oil market?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 131-141.
    6. A. Yalta & A. Yalta, 2010. "Should Economists Use Open Source Software for Doing Research?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 371-394, April.
    7. Baumöhl, Eduard & Výrost, Tomáš & Lyócsa, Štefan, 2011. "Are we able to capture the EU debt crisis? Evidence from PIIGGS countries in panel unit root framework," MPRA Paper 30334, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Richard G. Anderson & William H. Greene & Bruce D. McCullough & Hrishikesh D. Vinod, 2005. "The role of data & program code archives in the future of economic research," Working Papers 2005-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    9. A. Talha Yalta & A. Yasemin Yalta, . "Wilkinson Tests and gretl," EHUCHAPS, Universidad del País Vasco - Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales.
    10. Christian Kleiber & Achim Zeileis, 2010. "The Grunfeld Data at 50," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11, pages 404-417, November.
    11. Czinkota, Thomas, 2012. "Das Halteproblem bei Strukturbrüchen in Finanzmarktzeitreihen
      [The Halting Problem applied to Structural Breaks in Financial Time Series]
      ," MPRA Paper 37072, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Per-Olov Johansson & Bengt Kriström, 2007. "On a clear day you might see an environmental Kuznets curve," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 37(1), pages 77-90, May.
    13. Lindmark, Magnus & Acar, Sevil, 2013. "Sustainability in the making? A historical estimate of Swedish sustainable and unsustainable development 1850–2000," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 176-187.
    14. Roger Koenker & Achim Zeileis, 2009. "On reproducible econometric research," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(5), pages 833-847.
    15. Ariaster B. Chimeli & Roy G. Boyd, 2010. "Prohibition and the Supply of Brazilian Mahogany," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 86(1), pages 191-208.
    16. Fabio Clementi & Marco Gallegati & Mauro Gallegati, 2015. "Growth and Cycles of the Italian Economy Since 1861: The New Evidence," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 1(1), pages 25-59, March.
    17. Ignacio Díaz-Emparanza & Petr Mariel & María Victoria Esteban (ed.), 2009. "Econometrics with gretl. Proceedings of the gretl Conference 2009," UPV/EHU Books, Universidad del País Vasco - Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, edition 1, number 01, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    structural change; breakpoints; econometric software; numerical accuracy; reproducibility; R; GAUSS;

    JEL classification:

    • C87 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Econometric Software
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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