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Structural breaks in volatility spillovers between international financial markets: Contagion or mere interdependence?

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  • Jung, R.C.
  • Maderitsch, R.

Abstract

This paper conducts an investigation of volatility transmission between stock markets in Hong Kong, Europe and the United States covering the time period from 2000 up to 2011. Using intra-daily data we compute realized volatility time series for the three markets and employ a Heterogeneous Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model as our baseline econometric specification. Motivated by the presence of various crisis events contained in our sample, we detect time-variation and structural breaks in volatility spillovers. Particularly during the financial crisis of 2007, we find effects consistent with the notion of contagion, suggesting strong and sudden increases in the cross-market synchronization of chronologically succeeding volatilities. Investigating the role of mean breaks and conditional heteroskedasticity in the realized volatilities, however, we find the latter to be the main driver of breaks in volatility spillovers. Taking the volatility of realized volatilities into account, we find no evidence of contagion anymore.

Suggested Citation

  • Jung, R.C. & Maderitsch, R., 2014. "Structural breaks in volatility spillovers between international financial markets: Contagion or mere interdependence?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 331-342.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:47:y:2014:i:c:p:331-342
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.12.023
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ciarreta, Aitor & Zarraga, Ainhoa, 2016. "Modeling realized volatility on the Spanish intra-day electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 152-163.
    2. Holger Fink & Yulia Klimova & Claudia Czado & Jakob Stober, 2016. "Regime switching vine copula models for global equity and volatility indices," Papers 1604.05598, arXiv.org.
    3. Cipollini, Andrea & Cascio, Iolanda Lo & Muzzioli, Silvia, 2015. "Volatility co-movements: A time-scale decomposition analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 34-44.
    4. Dungey, Mardi & Gajurel, Dinesh, 2015. "Contagion and banking crisis – International evidence for 2007–2009," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 271-283.
    5. Yang, Lu & Cai, Xiao Jing & Zhang, Huimin & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2016. "Interdependence of foreign exchange markets: A wavelet coherence analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 6-14.
    6. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Duc K. Nguyen & Mark E. Wohar, 2015. "Causal Effects of the United States and Japan on Pacific-Rim Stock Markets: Nonparametric Quantile Causality Approach," Working Papers 201595, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Anwar, Sajid, 2016. "Fractional integration in daily stock market indices at Jordan's Amman stock exchange," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 16-37.
    8. Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2016. "Does institutional ownership increase stock return volatility? Evidence from Vietnam," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 54-61.
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    12. Dungey, Mardi & Milunovich, George & Thorp, Susan & Yang, Minxian, 2015. "Endogenous crisis dating and contagion using smooth transition structural GARCH," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 71-79.
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    15. repec:eee:phsmap:v:499:y:2018:i:c:p:288-297 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Holger Fink & Yulia Klimova & Claudia Czado & Jakob Stöber, 2017. "Regime Switching Vine Copula Models for Global Equity and Volatility Indices," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(1), pages 1-38, January.
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    19. Mateus, Cesario & Chinthalapati, Raju & Mateus, Irina B., 2017. "Intraday industry-specific spillover effect in European equity markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 278-298.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spillovers; Contagion; Realized volatility; HAR-RV model; Structural breaks;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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