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Nonparametric Predictive Regression

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A unifying framework for inference is developed in predictive regressions where the predictor has unknown integration properties and may be stationary or nonstationary. Two easily implemented nonparametric F-tests are proposed. The test statistics are related to those of Kasparis and Phillips (2012) and are obtained by kernel regression. The limit distribution of these predictive tests holds for a wide range of predictors including stationary as well as non-stationary fractional and near unit root processes. In this sense the proposed tests provide a unifying framework for predictive inference, allowing for possibly nonlinear relationships of unknown form, and offering robustness to integration order and functional form. Under the null of no predictability the limit distributions of the tests involve functionals of independent chi^2 variates. The tests are consistent and divergence rates are faster when the predictor is stationary. Asymptotic theory and simulations show that the proposed tests are more powerful than existing parametric predictability tests when deviations from unity are large or the predictive regression is nonlinear. Some empirical illustrations to monthly SP500 stock returns data are provided.

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File URL: http://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d18/d1878.pdf
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Paper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1878.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2012
Publication status: Published in Journal of Econometrics (April 2015), 185(2): 468-494
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1878
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Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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Web page: http://cowles.yale.edu/

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Order Information: Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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