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Hermite Series Estimation in Nonlinear Cointegrating Models

  • Biqing Cai

    ()

  • Jiti Gao

    ()

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This paper discusses nonparametric series estimation of integrable cointegration models using Hermite functions. We establish the uniform consistency and asymptotic normality of the series estimator. The Monte Carlo simulation results show that the performance of the estimator is numerically satisfactory. We then apply the estimator to estimate the stock return predictive function. The out-of-sample evaluation results suggest that dividend yield has nonlinear predictive power for stock returns while book-to-market ratio and earning-price ratio have little predictive power.

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File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/ebs/pubs/wpapers/2013/wp17-13.pdf
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Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics in its series Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers with number 17/13.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2013-17
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  1. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
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  4. Terasvirta, Timo & Tjostheim, Dag & Granger, Clive W. J., 2010. "Modelling Nonlinear Economic Time Series," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199587155.
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  19. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
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  23. Stambaugh, Robert F., 1999. "Predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 375-421, December.
  24. Chaohua Dong & Jiti Gao, 2012. "Specification Testing Driven by Orthogonal Series in Nonstationary Time Series Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 20/12, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  25. Nelson, Charles R & Kim, Myung J, 1993. " Predictable Stock Returns: The Role of Small Sample Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 641-61, June.
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  29. Gao, Jiti & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2013. "Semiparametric estimation in triangular system equations with nonstationarity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 176(1), pages 59-79.
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  31. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell, 1986. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 812, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  32. Gao, Jiti, 2007. "Nonlinear time series: semiparametric and nonparametric methods," MPRA Paper 39563, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Sep 2007.
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