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Hermite Series Estimation in Nonlinear Cointegrating Models

  • Biqing Cai

    ()

  • Jiti Gao

    ()

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This paper discusses nonparametric series estimation of integrable cointegration models using Hermite functions. We establish the uniform consistency and asymptotic normality of the series estimator. The Monte Carlo simulation results show that the performance of the estimator is numerically satisfactory. We then apply the estimator to estimate the stock return predictive function. The out-of-sample evaluation results suggest that dividend yield has nonlinear predictive power for stock returns while book-to-market ratio and earning-price ratio have little predictive power.

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File URL: http://business.monash.edu/econometrics-and-business-statistics/research/publications/ebs/wp17-13.pdf
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Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics in its series Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers with number 17/13.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2013-17
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  24. Campbell, John & Thompson, Samuel P., 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," Scholarly Articles 2622619, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  25. N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1985. "Do We Reject Too Often? Small Sample Properties of Tests of Rational Expectations Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0051, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  27. Nelson, Charles R & Kim, Myung J, 1993. " Predictable Stock Returns: The Role of Small Sample Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 641-61, June.
  28. Chaohua Dong & Jiti Gao, 2012. "Expansion of Lévy Process Functionals and Its Application in Statistical Estimation," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 2/12, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  29. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Selection of estimation window in the presence of breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 134-161, March.
  30. Gao, Jiti & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2013. "Semiparametric estimation in triangular system equations with nonstationarity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 176(1), pages 59-79.
  31. Chaohua Dong & Jiti Gao, 2012. "Specification Testing Driven by Orthogonal Series in Nonstationary Time Series Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 20/12, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
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