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Structural Nonparametric Cointegrating Regression

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Abstract

Nonparametric estimation of a structural cointegrating regression model is studied. As in the standard linear cointegrating regression model, the regressor and the dependent variable are jointly dependent and contemporaneously correlated. In nonparametric estimation problems, joint dependence is known to be a major complication that affects identification, induces bias in conventional kernel estimates, and frequently leads to ill-posed inverse problems. In functional cointegrating regressions where the regressor is an integrated time series, it is shown here that inverse and ill-posed inverse problems do not arise. Remarkably, nonparametric kernel estimation of a structural nonparametric cointegrating regression is consistent and the limit distribution theory is mixed normal, giving simple useable asymptotics in practical work. The results provide a convenient basis for inference in structural nonparametric regression with nonstationary time series. The methods may be applied to a wide range of empirical models where functional estimation of cointegrating relations is required.

Suggested Citation

  • Qiying Wang & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2008. "Structural Nonparametric Cointegrating Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1657, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1657
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    File URL: http://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d16/d1657.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Whitney K. Newey & James L. Powell & Francis Vella, 1999. "Nonparametric Estimation of Triangular Simultaneous Equations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(3), pages 565-604, May.
    2. Whitney K. Newey & James L. Powell, 2003. "Instrumental Variable Estimation of Nonparametric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1565-1578, September.
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    Keywords

    Brownian Local time; Cointegration; Functional regression; Gaussian process; Integrated process; Kernel estimate; Nonlinear functional; Nonparametric regression; Structural estimation; Unit root;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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