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Trend breaks and the fisher hypothesis in canada and the United States

  • Frank Atkins
  • Milanda Chan

Using the sequential estimation methodology developed by Banerjee, Lumsdaine and Stock (Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10(3), 271-87, 1992), Zivot and Andrews (Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251-70, 1992) and extended by Lumsdaine and Papell (Review of Economics and Statistics, 79(2), 212-18, 1997), empirical evidence is found consistent with the hypothesis that the 90-day Treasury Bill rate and the inflation rate in Canada and the US are stationary around a deterministic trend with two breaks. When the breaks are filtered out, the data is consistent with partial long-run adjustment of the nominal interest rate to an inflation shock, but not of the size predicted by the Fisher Effect.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 36 (2004)
Issue (Month): 17 ()
Pages: 1907-1913

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:36:y:2004:i:17:p:1907-1913
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  1. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  2. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
  3. Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1992. "Testing long run neutrality," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 92-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  5. Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  6. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-87, July.
  7. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  8. Garcia, R. & Perron, P., 1994. "An Analysis of the Real Interest rate Under Regime Shifts," Cahiers de recherche 9428, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  9. Crowder, William J & Hoffman, Dennis L, 1996. "The Long-Run Relationship between Nominal Interest Rates and Inflation: The Fisher Equation Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 102-18, February.
  10. Fisher, Mark E & Seater, John J, 1993. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 402-15, June.
  11. M Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J Smith, 2004. "Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Long Run Relationships," ESE Discussion Papers 46, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
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