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Testing the Fisher Effect in the Presence of Structural Change: A Case Study of the UK,1961-2001

In this paper we provide an empirical test of the Fisher effect using cointegration techniques, where the existence of instabilities in the cointegrating or long-run relationships is explicitly tested. The analysis was applied to the UK, a country that has been subject to potentially stronger regime shifts than other countries over the last years, for the period 1961-2001. To this end, we apply some recent econometric techniques aimed to detect eventual structural changes, allowing the instability to occur at a unknown date. We supply a broad battery of tests in order to illustrate recent developments in the field, which might also be useful to applied econometricians.

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Paper provided by Centro de Estudios Andaluces in its series Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces with number E2003_22.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cea:doctra:e2003_22
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  1. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
  3. Markku Lanne, 2006. "Nonlinear dynamics of interest rate and inflation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1157-1168.
  4. Shin, Yongcheol, 1994. "A Residual-Based Test of the Null of Cointegration Against the Alternative of No Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 91-115, March.
  5. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
  6. Oscar Bajo & Vicente Esteve, 1998. "¿Existe un efecto Fisher en el largo plazo? Evidencia para la economía española, 1962-1996," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 9810, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.
  7. Garcia, R. & Perron, P., 1994. "An Analysis of the Real Interest rate Under Regime Shifts," Cahiers de recherche 9428, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  8. Dimitris K. Christopoulos & Miguel A. Leãn-Ledesma, 2007. "A Long-Run Non-Linear Approach to the Fisher Effect," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 543-559, 03.
  9. Perron, P. & Ng, S., 1994. "Useful Modifications to Some Unit Root Tests with Dependent Errors and Their Local Asymptotic Properties," Cahiers de recherche 9427, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  10. William J. Crowder, 1997. "The Long-Run Fisher Relation in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 1124-42, November.
  11. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1992. "Is the Fisher effect for real? : A reexamination of the relationship between inflation and interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 195-215, November.
  12. Willem H. Buiter & Marcus Miller, 1983. "Changing the Rules: Economic Consequences of the Thatcher Regime," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 14(2), pages 305-380.
  13. Gawon Yoon, 2010. "Does nonlinearity help resolve the Fisher effect puzzle?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(8), pages 823-828.
  14. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 609-642.
  15. DeJong, David N, et al, 1992. "Integration versus Trend Stationarity in Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 423-33, March.
  16. Goodhart, Charles, 1989. "The Conduct of Monetary Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 293-346, June.
  17. Christopher Allsopp, 2002. "Macroeconomic Policy Rules in Theory and in Practice," Discussion Papers 10, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  18. Rose, Andrew Kenan, 1988. " Is the Real Interest Rate Stable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1095-1112, December.
  19. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Critical values for multiple structural change tests," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 72-78, 06.
  20. G. William Schwert, 1988. "Tests For Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Carmen Diaz-Roldan & Vicente Esteve, 2005. "Is the Fisher effect non-linear? some evidence for Spain, 1963-2002," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(12), pages 849-854.
  22. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  23. Siklos, Pierre L. & Skoczylas, Leslaw F., 2002. "Volatility clustering in real interest rates: international evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 193-209, June.
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