Political regimes, business cycles, seasonalities, and returns
This paper provides a method for testing for regime differences when regimes are long-lasting. Standard testing procedures are generally inappropriate because regime persistence causes a spurious regression problem - a problem that has led to incorrect inference in a broad range of studies involving regimes representing political, business, and seasonal cycles. The paper outlines analytically how standard estimators can be adjusted for regime dummy variable persistence. While the adjustments are helpful asymptotically, spurious regression remains a problem in small samples and must be addressed using simulation or bootstrap procedures. We provide a simulation procedure for testing hypotheses in situations where an independent variable in a time-series regression is a persistent regime dummy variable. We also develop a procedure for testing hypotheses in situations where the dependent variable has similar properties.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Wayne E. Ferson & Sergei Sarkissian & Timothy Simin, 2002.
"Spurious Regressions in Financial Economics?,"
NBER Working Papers
9143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kiefer, Nicholas M. & Vogelsang, Timothy J., 2005.
"A New Asymptotic Theory For Heteroskedasticity-Autocorrelation Robust Tests,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(06), pages 1130-1164, December.
- Kiefer, Nicholas M. & Vogelsang, Timothy J., 2005. "A New Asymptotic Theory for Heteroskedasticity-Autocorrelation Robust Tests," Working Papers 05-08, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
- Allan Timmermann & Halbert White & Ryan Sullivan, 1998.
"Data-Snooping, Technical Trading, Rule Performance and the Bootstrap,"
FMG Discussion Papers
dp303, Financial Markets Group.
- Ryan Sullivan & Allan Timmermann & Halbert White, 1999. "Data-Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance, and the Bootstrap," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1647-1691, October.
- Sullivan, Ryan & Timmermann, Allan G & White, Halbert, 1998. "Data-Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance and the Bootstrap," CEPR Discussion Papers 1976, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1989.
"Data-Snooping Biases in Tests of Financial Asset Pricing Models,"
NBER Working Papers
3001, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lo, Andrew W & MacKinlay, A Craig, 1990. "Data-Snooping Biases in Tests of Financial Asset Pricing Models," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(3), pages 431-67.
- Lo, Andrew W. (Andrew Wen-Chuan) & MacKinlay, Archie Craig, 1955-, 1989. "Data-snooping biases in tests of financial asset pricing models," Working papers 3020-89., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988.
"Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
- Foster, F Douglas & Smith, Tom & Whaley, Robert E, 1997. " Assessing Goodness-of-Fit of Asset Pricing Models: The Distribution of the Maximal R-Squared," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 591-607, June.
- Kanas, Angelos, 2008. "On real interest rate dynamics and regime switching," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2089-2098, October.
- Richardson, Matthew & Stock, James H., 1989. "Drawing inferences from statistics based on multiyear asset returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 323-348, December.
- Granger, Clive W.J. & Hyung, Namwon & Jeon, Yongil, 1998.
"Spurious Regressions with Stationary Series,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
qt7r3353t8, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Jacobsen, Ben & Marquering, Wessel, 2008. "Is it the weather?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 526-540, April.
- Andrew W. Lo & Craig A. MacKinlay, .
"An Econometric Analysis of Nonsyschronous-Trading,"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
19-89, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2009. "Predicting the bear stock market: Macroeconomic variables as leading indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 211-223, February.
- Sullivan, Ryan & Timmermann, Allan & White, Halbert, 2001. "Dangers of data mining: The case of calendar effects in stock returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 249-286, November.
- Pedro Santa-Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2003. "The Presidential Puzzle: Political Cycles and the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1841-1872, October.
- Candelon, Bertrand & Piplack, Jan & Straetmans, Stefan, 2008. "On measuring synchronization of bulls and bears: The case of East Asia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1022-1035, June.
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
- Nabeya, Seiji & Perron, Pierre, 1994.
"Local asymptotic distribution related to the AR(1) model with dependent errors,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 229-264, June.
- Nabeya, S. & Perron, P., 1991. "Local Asymtotic Distributions Related to the AR(1) MOdel with Dependent Errors," Papers 362, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987.
"A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
- Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stoll, Hans R. & Whaley, Robert E., 1990. "The Dynamics of Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(04), pages 441-468, December.
- Tarun Chordia & Lakshmanan Shivakumar, 2002. "Momentum, Business Cycle, and Time-varying Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 985-1019, 04.
- Michael J. Cooper & Roberto C. Gutierrez & Allaudeen Hameed, 2004. "Market States and Momentum," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1345-1365, 06.
- Ai Deng, 2013. "Understanding Spurious Regression in Financial Economics," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 12(1), pages 122-150, December.
- Jensen, Gerald R. & Mercer, Jeffrey M. & Johnson, Robert R., 1996. "Business conditions, monetary policy, and expected security returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 213-237, February.
- Roll, Richard, 1984. "Orange Juice and Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 861-80, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:33:y:2009:i:6:p:1112-1128. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.