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Sell in May and Go Away: Still good advice for investors?

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  • Dichtl, Hubert
  • Drobetz, Wolfgang

Abstract

This study examines whether the “Sell in May and Go Away” (or Halloween) trading strategy still offers an opportunity to earn abnormal returns. In contrast to prior studies, we consider sample periods during which adequate investment instruments were available for an effective implementation of the Halloween strategy. In addition, we account for when the first study confirming the Halloween effect was published in a top academic journal. To use the limited data in the most efficient way, and to avoid possible data-snooping biases, we implement a bootstrap simulation approach. We find that the Halloween effect strongly weakened or even disappeared in recent years. Our results are robust across different markets and against various parameter variations. Overall, our findings support the theory of efficient capital markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Dichtl, Hubert & Drobetz, Wolfgang, 2015. "Sell in May and Go Away: Still good advice for investors?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 29-43.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:38:y:2015:i:c:p:29-43
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2014.09.007
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    Cited by:

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    2. Alex Plastun & Xolani Sibande & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Halloween Effect in Developed Stock Markets: A US Perspective," Working Papers 201914, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Alex Plastun & Xolani Sibande & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2020. "Halloween Effect in developed stock markets: A historical perspective," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 161, pages 130-138.
    4. Razvan Stefanescu & Ramona Dumitriu, 2025. "The Returns of US Capital Market in the First Days of Purchase Transactions Associated to the Halloween Strategies," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 2, pages 265-272.
    5. Kenourgios, Dimitris & Samios, Yiannis, 2021. "Halloween effect and active fund management," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 534-544.
    6. Shehadeh, Ali A. & Zheng, Min, 2023. "Calendar anomalies in stock market returns: Evidence from Middle East countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 962-980.
    7. Hsu, Chih-Hsiang & Lien, Donald, 2025. "To outperform: Sell-in-May enhanced with bond investments," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    8. Peter Arendas & Jana Kotlebova, 2019. "The Turn of the Month Effect on CEE Stock Markets," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-19, October.
    9. Ivelina Pavlova & Ann Marie Hibbert, 2024. "Performance dispersion among target date funds," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(4), pages 369-382, July.
    10. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, January.
    11. Baur, Dirk G. & Dichtl, Hubert & Drobetz, Wolfgang & Wendt, Viktoria-Sophie, 2020. "Investing in gold – Market timing or buy-and-hold?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    12. Degenhardt, Thomas & Auer, Benjamin R., 2018. "The “Sell in May” effect: A review and new empirical evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 169-205.
    13. Benjamin R. Auer, 2019. "Does the strength of capital market anomalies exhibit seasonal patterns?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(1), pages 91-103, January.
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    15. Chui, David & Wing Cheng, Wui & Chi Chow, Sheung & LI, Ya, 2020. "Eastern Halloween effect: A stochastic dominance approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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