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Halloween or January? Yet another puzzle

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  • Lucey, Brian M
  • Zhao, Shelly

Abstract

Recent works suggest a potentially exploitable effect in US markets, the 'Halloween Indicator'. This suggests that the greater part of changes in equity markets arises over the November-April period, with little change over the summer months, simultaneous with no evident changes in the risk profiles of the two six-month periods. We re-examine this and find contradictory evidence. Over the 1926-2002 period we find rather that the effect demonstrated may well be a reflection of the well-known January anomaly. Our conclusion therefore is that the jury remains out on the existence of a semi-annual seasonality.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucey, Brian M & Zhao, Shelly, 2008. "Halloween or January? Yet another puzzle," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 1055-1069, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:17:y:2008:i:5:p:1055-1069
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ramona DUMITRIU & Razvan STEFANESCU, 2014. "Gone Fishin’ Effects In Returns," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 254-261.
    2. Dichtl, Hubert & Drobetz, Wolfgang, 2015. "Sell in May and Go Away: Still good advice for investors?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 29-43.
    3. Haggard, K. Stephen & Witte, H. Douglas, 2010. "The Halloween effect: Trick or treat?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 379-387, December.
    4. Auer, Benjamin R., 2014. "Daily seasonality in crude oil returns and volatilities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 82-88.
    5. Gebka, Bartosz & Hudson, Robert S. & Atanasova, Christina V., 2015. "The benefits of combining seasonal anomalies and technical trading rules," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 36-44.
    6. Dragos Stefan Oprea, 2014. "The Halloween Effect Evidence from Romania," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 4(7), pages 463-471, July.
    7. O'Connor, Fergal A. & Lucey, Brian M. & Batten, Jonathan A. & Baur, Dirk G., 2015. "The financial economics of gold — A survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 186-205.
    8. Wadim Strielkowski, 2014. "Business Potential of Halloween: Sales and Trends," Tržište/Market, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 26(2), pages 215-225.
    9. H. Douglas Witte, 2010. "Outliers and the Halloween Effect: Comment on Maberly and Pierce," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 7(1), pages 91-98, January.
    10. repec:eme:mfipps:v:36:y:2010:i:3:p:530-542 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Auer, Benjamin R. & Schuhmacher, Frank, 2016. "Do socially (ir)responsible investments pay? New evidence from international ESG data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 51-62.
    12. Urquhart, Andrew & McGroarty, Frank, 2014. "Calendar effects, market conditions and the Adaptive Market Hypothesis: Evidence from long-run U.S. data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 154-166.
    13. Zhong, Angel & Limkriangkrai, Manapon & Gray, Philip, 2014. "Anomalies, risk adjustment and seasonality: Australian evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 207-218.
    14. repec:eee:ecofin:v:43:y:2018:i:c:p:169-205 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:eee:riibaf:v:41:y:2017:i:c:p:292-302 is not listed on IDEAS

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