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The Other January Effect: International Evidence

  • Martin T. Bohl
  • Christian A. Salm
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    This paper investigates the predictive power of stock market returns in January for the subsequent eleven months' returns across 19 countries, thereby contributing to the literature on stock market seasonalities. Only two out of 19 countries' stock markets exhibit a robust Other January E ect. In light of this evidence, we conclude that the Other January E ect is not an international phenomenon.

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    File URL: http://www1.wiwi.uni-muenster.de/cqe/forschung/publikationen/cqe-working-papers/CQE_WP_8_2009.pdf
    File Function: Version of April, 2009
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    Paper provided by Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster in its series CQE Working Papers with number 0809.

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    Length: 15 pages
    Date of creation: Apr 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:cqe:wpaper:0809
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    1. Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1989. "Data-Snooping Biases in Tests of Financial Asset Pricing Models," NBER Working Papers 3001, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Eugene F. Fama, . "Market Efficiency, Long-term Returns, and Behavioral Finance," CRSP working papers 340, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    3. Campbell, John & Yogo, Motohiro, 2006. "Efficient tests of stock return predictability," Scholarly Articles 3122601, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    4. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    5. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 858, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    6. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
    7. Sullivan, Ryan & Timmermann, Allan & White, Halbert, 2001. "Dangers of data mining: The case of calendar effects in stock returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 249-286, November.
    8. Schwert, G. William, 2003. "Anomalies and market efficiency," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 939-974 Elsevier.
    9. Donald B. Keim & Robert F. Stambaugh, . "Predicting Returns in the Stock and Bond Markets," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 15-85, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    10. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
    11. Jensen, Gerald R. & Mercer, Jeffrey M. & Johnson, Robert R., 1996. "Business conditions, monetary policy, and expected security returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 213-237, February.
    12. Cooper, Michael J. & McConnell, John J. & Ovtchinnikov, Alexei V., 2006. "The other January effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 315-341, November.
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