IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v85y2023icp124-136.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effect of political and bureaucratic regime changes on Australia's real interest rate

Author

Listed:
  • Mishra, Ankita
  • Moosa, Imad A.
  • Tawadros, George B.
  • Mishra, Vinod

Abstract

We attempt to find out if changes in political and bureaucratic regimes lead to significant mean shifts in the Australian short-term real interest rate, using quarterly data for the period 1970:3 to 2019:1. Utilising a sophisticated structural break test, three distinct structural breaks are found in Australia's real interest rate. The empirical results show that a model estimated to consider the shifts in the political regime explains more of the variation in the real interest rate compared to a model that incorporates shifts in the bureaucratic regime. Results from several non-nested model selection tests also confirm this finding.

Suggested Citation

  • Mishra, Ankita & Moosa, Imad A. & Tawadros, George B. & Mishra, Vinod, 2023. "The effect of political and bureaucratic regime changes on Australia's real interest rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 124-136.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:85:y:2023:i:c:p:124-136
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2023.01.016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056023000242
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.iref.2023.01.016?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huizinga, John & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1986. "Monetary policy regime shifts and the unusual behavior of real interest rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 231-274, January.
    2. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G, 1981. "Several Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 781-793, May.
    3. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
    4. Schwert, G. William, 1986. "The time series behavior of real interest rates A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 275-287, January.
    5. Garcia, Rene & Perron, Pierre, 1996. "An Analysis of the Real Interest Rate under Regime Shifts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 111-125, February.
    6. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    7. Nunes, Luis C & Newbold, Paul & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 1997. "Testing for Unit Roots with Breaks: Evidence on the Great Crash and the Unit Root Hypothesis Reconsidered," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 435-448, November.
    8. Ij. Macfarlane, 1999. "Australian Monetary Policy in the Last Quarter of the Twentieth Century," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 75(3), pages 213-224, September.
    9. Sonali Das & Rangan Gupta & Patrick Kanda & Monique Reid & Christian Tipoy & Mulatu Zerihun, 2014. "Real interest rate persistence in South Africa: evidence and implications," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 41-62, February.
    10. Posso, Alberto & Tawadros, George B., 2013. "Does greater central bank independence really lead to lower inflation? Evidence from panel data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 244-247.
    11. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    12. Belke, Ansgar & Potrafke, Niklas, 2012. "Does government ideology matter in monetary policy? A panel data analysis for OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1126-1139.
    13. Antoncic, Madelyn, 1986. "High and Volatile Real Interest Rates: Where Does the Fed Fit In?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 18-27, February.
    14. Pesaran, M. Hashem, 1987. "Global and Partial Non-Nested Hypotheses and Asymptotic Local Power," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(1), pages 69-97, February.
    15. Caporale, Tony & Grier, Kevin B, 2000. "Political Regime Change and the Real Interest Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 320-334, August.
    16. Terence C. Mills & Ping Wang, 2003. "Have output growth rates stabilised? evidence from the g‐7 economies," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(3), pages 232-246, August.
    17. Rachael McCririck & Daniel Rees, 2017. "The Neutral Interest Rate," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 09-18, September.
    18. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    19. Macfarlane, I J, 1999. "Australian Monetary Policy in the Last Quarter of the Twentieth Century," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 75(230), pages 213-224, September.
    20. Eric M. Engen & R. Glenn Hubbard, 2005. "Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 83-160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Lai, Kon S., 2008. "The puzzling unit root in the real interest rate and its inconsistency with intertemporal consumption behavior," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 140-155, February.
    22. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Ben Khediri, Karim, 2016. "Financial development and environmental quality in UAE: Cointegration with structural breaks," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1322-1335.
    23. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1990. "World Real Interest Rates," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 15-74, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Imad Moosa & Jolanta Kwiecien, 1999. "The nominal interest rate as a predictor of inflation: a re-examination of the underlying model," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 337-341.
    25. MacKinnon, James G. & White, Halbert & Davidson, Russell, 1983. "Tests for model specification in the presence of alternative hypotheses : Some further results," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 53-70, January.
    26. M. H. Pesaran, 1974. "On the General Problem of Model Selection," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 41(2), pages 153-171.
    27. Holmes, Mark J. & Dutu, Richard & Cui, Xiaoman, 2009. "Real interest rates, inflation and the open economy: A regime-switching perspective on Australia and New Zealand," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 351-360, March.
    28. Caporale, Tony & Grier, Kevin, 2005. "How Smart Is my Dummy? Time Series Tests for the Influence of Politics," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 77-94, January.
    29. Walsh, Carl E, 1988. "Testing for Real Effects of Monetary Policy Regime Shifts: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 393-401, August.
    30. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
    31. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Critical values for multiple structural change tests," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 72-78, June.
    32. Godfrey, L. G. & Pesaran, M. H., 1983. "Tests of non-nested regression models: Small sample adjustments and Monte Carlo evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 133-154, January.
    33. Mukherjee, Bumba & Singer, David Andrew, 2008. "Monetary Institutions, Partisanship, and Inflation Targeting," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 62(2), pages 323-358, April.
    34. Felmingham, Bruce & Mansfield, Peter, 2003. "A note on the stability of real interest rates in Australia," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 517-524.
    35. R. Glenn Hubbard & Eric M. Engen, 2004. "Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates," AEI Economics Working Papers 50018, American Enterprise Institute.
    36. Rapach, David E & Wohar, Mark E, 2005. "Regime Changes in International Real Interest Rates: Are They a Monetary Phenomenon?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 887-906, October.
    37. Shiu-Sheng Chen & Chun-Chieh Wang, 2014. "Do Politics Cause Regime Shifts In Monetary Policy?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(2), pages 492-502, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Nov), pages 609-642.
    2. Kanas, Angelos, 2008. "On real interest rate dynamics and regime switching," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2089-2098, October.
    3. Costantini, Mauro & Lupi, Claudio, 2007. "An analysis of inflation and interest rates. New panel unit root results in the presence of structural breaks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 408-414, June.
    4. Fang‐Shuo Chang & Shiu‐Sheng Chen & Po‐Yuan Wang, 2020. "Politics and the UK's monetary policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 67(5), pages 486-522, November.
    5. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    6. Nicolas Million, 2010. "Test simultané de la non-stationnarité et de la non-linéarité : une application au taux d’intérêt réel américain," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 192(1), pages 83-95.
    7. Khorshed Chowdhury, 2011. "Dynamics, Structural Breaks and the Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate of Australia," Economics Working Papers wp11-11, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    8. Alfred A. Haug, 2014. "On real interest rate persistence: the role of breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(10), pages 1058-1066, April.
    9. Nuno Ferreira & Rui Menezes & Sónia Bentes, 2014. "Cointegration and Structural Breaks in the EU Sovereign Debt Crisis," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 4(1), pages 680-680.
    10. Vujić, Sunčica & Commandeur, Jacques J.F. & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2016. "Intervention time series analysis of crime rates: The case of sentence reform in Virginia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 311-323.
    11. Arnold, Stephan & Auer, Benjamin R., 2015. "What do scientists know about inflation hedging?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 187-214.
    12. Tolga Omay & Ayşegül Çorakcı & Furkan Emirmahmutoglu, 2017. "Real interest rates: nonlinearity and structural breaks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 283-307, February.
    13. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Evidence of persistence in U.S. short and long-term interest rates," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 775-789.
    14. Jinho Bae & Chang-Jin Kim & Dong Kim, 2012. "The evolution of the monetary policy regimes in the U.S," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 617-649, October.
    15. McAleer, Michael, 1995. "The significance of testing empirical non-nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 149-171, May.
    16. Soon, Siew-Voon & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Mohamad Shariff, Nurul Sima, 2017. "The persistence in real interest rates: Does it solve the intertemporal consumption behavior puzzle?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 36-51.
    17. Giorgio Canarella & Luis A. Gil‐Alana & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2022. "The behaviour of real interest rates: New evidence from a 'suprasecular' perspective," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 46-64, April.
    18. Hultblad Brigitta & Karlsson Sune, 2008. "Bayesian Simultaneous Determination of Structural Breaks and Lag Lengths," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-29, September.
    19. Holmes, Mark J. & Dutu, Richard & Cui, Xiaoman, 2009. "Real interest rates, inflation and the open economy: A regime-switching perspective on Australia and New Zealand," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 351-360, March.
    20. Kim, Chang-Jin & Kim, Jaeho, 2013. "Bayesian Inference in Regime-Switching ARMA Models with Absorbing States: The Dynamics of the Ex-Ante Real Interest Rate Under Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 51117, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political regimes; Bureaucratic regimes; Real interest rate; Australia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:85:y:2023:i:c:p:124-136. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.