IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bfr/banfra/201.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Test simultané de la non-stationnarité et de la non-linéarité : une application au taux d.intérêt réel américain

Author

Listed:
  • Million, N.

Abstract

In this article, we analyze the US short term real interest rate series for the last five decades in the framework of a M-SETAR model (Momentum - Self Exciting Threshold Auto-Regressive). With the aim of disentangling the non-linearity from the non-stationarity cases, we use threshold integration tests against a stationary but non-linear alternative hypothesis. One innovation consists in the introduction of a structural break in the deterministic component of the process. Therefore, our model allows for shifting regimes both in the deterministic part (mean shift) and in the stochastic part (threshold effects). The empirical application concerns the gap between the ex post real interest rate and its natural level which changes after the break date. Our results show some evidence that the real interest gap follows a two-regimes threshold process. Furthermore, the process seems to behave as a martingale in one of the regimes, highlighting the "reactive" characteristics of the monetary policy during these corresponding periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Million, N., 2008. "Test simultané de la non-stationnarité et de la non-linéarité : une application au taux d.intérêt réel américain," Working papers 201, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:201
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://publications.banque-france.fr/sites/default/files/medias/documents/working-paper_201_2008.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frédérique Bec & Mélika Ben Salem & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Real exchange rates and real interest rates : a nonlinear perspective," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 72(2), pages 177-194.
    2. Giammarioli, Nicola & Valla, Natacha, 2004. "The natural real interest rate and monetary policy: a review," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 641-660, July.
    3. Dolado Juan & Pedrero Ramón María-Dolores & Ruge-Murcia Francisco J., 2004. "Nonlinear Monetary Policy Rules: Some New Evidence for the U.S," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-34, September.
    4. Diebold, Francis X. & Inoue, Atsushi, 2001. "Long memory and regime switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 131-159, November.
    5. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
    6. Mesonnier, Jean-Stephane & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2007. "A time-varying "natural" rate of interest for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1768-1784, October.
    7. Evans, Martin D D & Lewis, Karen K, 1995. "Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Affect Estimates of the Long-Run Fisher Relation?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 225-253, March.
    8. Rose, Andrew Kenan, 1988. " Is the Real Interest Rate Stable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1095-1112, December.
    9. Huizinga, John & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1986. "Monetary policy regime shifts and the unusual behavior of real interest rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 231-274, January.
    10. Garcia, Rene & Perron, Pierre, 1996. "An Analysis of the Real Interest Rate under Regime Shifts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 111-125, February.
    11. Nelson, Charles R & Schwert, G William, 1977. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation: On Testing the Hypothesis That the Real Rate of Interest is Constant," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 478-486, June.
    12. Perron, Pierre, 1990. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-162, April.
    13. Dufrenot, Gilles & Guegan, Dominique & Peguin-Feissolle, Anne, 2005. "Long-memory dynamics in a SETAR model - applications to stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 391-406, December.
    14. Caporale, Tony & Grier, Kevin B, 2000. "Political Regime Change and the Real Interest Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 320-334, August.
    15. Shome, Dilip K & Smith, Stephen D & Pinkerton, John M, 1988. " The Purchasing Power of Money and Nominal Interest Rates: A Re-examination," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1113-1125, December.
    16. Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1555-1596, November.
    17. Fama, Eugene F. & Gibbons, Michael R., 1982. "Inflation, real returns and capital investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 297-323.
    18. Carl E. Walsh, 1987. "Three questions concerning nominal and real interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Fall, pages 5-19.
    19. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
    20. Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim & Marianne Sensier, 2005. "Nonlinearity in the Fed's monetary policy rule," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(5), pages 621-639.
    21. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    22. Athanasios Orphanides & David W. Wilcox, 2002. "The Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 47-71.
    23. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    24. George Kapetanios & Yongcheol Shin & Andy Snell, 2000. "Testing for a Unit Root against Nonlinear STAR Models," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 69, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    25. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
    26. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    27. Nicolas Million, 2007. "Effet peso : présentation théorique et application à la politique monétaire," Post-Print halshs-00144659, HAL.
    28. Bec Frédérique & Ben Salem Mélika & Collard Fabrice, 2002. "Asymmetries in Monetary Policy Reaction Function: Evidence for U.S. French and German Central Banks," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-22, July.
    29. Andy Levin & Jinill Kim, 2004. "Conditional Welfare Comparisons of Monetary Policy Rules," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 252, Society for Computational Economics.
    30. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    31. Pippenger, Michael K & Goering, Gregory E, 1993. "A Note on the Empirical Power of Unit Root Tests under Threshold Processes," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(4), pages 473-481, November.
    32. Rapach, David E. & Weber, Christian E., 2004. "Are real interest rates really nonstationary? New evidence from tests with good size and power," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 409-430, September.
    33. Carrasco, Marine, 2002. "Misspecified Structural Change, Threshold, and Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 239-273, August.
    34. Nicolas Million, 2007. "Effet peso : présentation théorique et application à la politique monétaire," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne v07012, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. David Perrain & Philippe Jean-Pierre, 2020. "Tourisme et croissance économique dans les petites économies insulaires : à l'épreuve des modèles à seuil," Working Papers hal-02462562, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Nov), pages 609-642.
    2. Nicolas Million, 2006. "Changements de régime pour la persistance et la dynamique du taux d'intérêt réel américain," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00119051, HAL.
    3. Million, Nicolas, 2004. "Central Bank's interventions and the Fisher hypothesis: a threshold cointegration investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 1051-1064, December.
    4. Henry, Olan T. & Shields, Kalvinder, 2004. "Is there a unit root in inflation?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 481-500, September.
    5. Nicolas Million, 2006. "Changements de régime pour la persistance et la dynamique du taux d'intérêt réel américain," Post-Print halshs-00119051, HAL.
    6. Kim, Chang-Jin & Kim, Jaeho, 2013. "Bayesian Inference in Regime-Switching ARMA Models with Absorbing States: The Dynamics of the Ex-Ante Real Interest Rate Under Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 51117, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Arnold, Stephan & Auer, Benjamin R., 2015. "What do scientists know about inflation hedging?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 187-214.
    8. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Evidence of persistence in U.S. short and long-term interest rates," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 775-789.
    9. Jinho Bae & Chang-Jin Kim & Dong Kim, 2012. "The evolution of the monetary policy regimes in the U.S," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 617-649, October.
    10. Kanas, Angelos, 2008. "On real interest rate dynamics and regime switching," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2089-2098, October.
    11. Georgios P. Kouretas & Mark E. Wohar, 2012. "The dynamics of inflation: a study of a large number of countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(16), pages 2001-2026, June.
    12. Costantini, Mauro & Lupi, Claudio, 2007. "An analysis of inflation and interest rates. New panel unit root results in the presence of structural breaks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 408-414, June.
    13. Zisimos Koustas & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2005. "Policy-Induced Mean Reversion in the Real Interest Rate?," Working Papers 0503, Brock University, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2005.
    14. Garcia, Rene & Perron, Pierre, 1996. "An Analysis of the Real Interest Rate under Regime Shifts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 111-125, February.
    15. George Kapetanios & Yongcheol Shin, 2006. "Unit root tests in three-regime SETAR models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 9(2), pages 252-278, July.
    16. MILLION Nicolas, 2010. "Shifting Regimes in the Relationship between Interest Rates and Inflation: A Threshold Cointegration Approach," EcoMod2003 330700102, EcoMod.
    17. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2008. "The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 797-849, April.
    18. Giorgio Canarella & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2020. "The Behavior of Real Interest Rates: New Evidence from a ``Suprasecular" Perspective," Working Papers 202093, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    19. Manopimoke, Pym, 2019. "The Output Euler Equation And Real Interest Rate Regimes," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 420-447, January.
    20. Chang, Tsangyao & Ranjbar, Omid & Tang, D.P., 2013. "Revisiting the mean reversion of inflation rates for 22 OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 245-252.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    M-SETAR Model ; Structural break ; Real interest rate ; Switching regime.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:201. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael brassart (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdfgvfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.