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Changements de régime pour la persistance et la dynamique du taux d'intérêt réel américain

  • Nicolas Million


    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS)

In this article, we analyze the real interest rate series of the three-month Treasury Bill rates in the frameworkk of a SETAR model (Self Exciting Threshold Auto-Regressive). With the aim of disentangling the non-linearity from the non-stationarity cases, we use very recent threshold integration tests against a stationary but non-linear alternative hypothesis. One innovation consists in the introduction of structural breaks in the deterministic part of the process. This long-run representation therefore allows for a time-varying threshold parameter in the model. Empirical results strongly call for non-linear reversion effects concerning the real interest rate series during the last fifty years. However, the conclusion of the unit root tests are not so straightforward concerning the hypothesis of stationarity : the real interest rate seems to be stationary only for the lower regime, determined by the estimated threshold.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00119051.

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Date of creation: Oct 2006
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Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00119051
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