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Changements de régime pour la persistance et la dynamique du taux d'intérêt réel américain

In this article, we analyze the real interest rate series of the three-month Treasury Bill rates in the framework of a SETAR model (Self Exciting Threshold Auto-Regressive). With the aim of disentangling the non-linearity from the non-stationarity cases, we use very recent threshold integration tests against a stationary but non-linear alternative hypothesis. One innovation consists in the introduction of structural breaks in the deterministic part of the process. This long-run representation therefore allows for a time-varying threshold parameter in the model. Empirical results strongly call for non-linear mean reversion effects concerning the real interest rate series during the last fifty years. However, the conclusion of the unit root tests are not so straightforward concerning the hypothesis of stationarity : the real interest rate seems to be stationary only for the lower regime, determined by the estimated threshold.

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File URL: ftp://mse.univ-paris1.fr/pub/mse/cahiers2006/V06067.pdf
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Paper provided by Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1) in its series Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques with number v06067.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mse:wpsorb:v06067
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  1. Dolado Juan & Pedrero Ramón María-Dolores & Ruge-Murcia Francisco J., 2004. "Nonlinear Monetary Policy Rules: Some New Evidence for the U.S," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-34, September.
  2. Garcia, Rene & Perron, Pierre, 1996. "An Analysis of the Real Interest Rate under Regime Shifts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 111-25, February.
  3. Athanasios Orphanides & David W. Wilcox, 1996. "The opportunistic approach to disinflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Helmut Luetkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2000. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Level Shift at Unknown Time," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0342, Econometric Society.
  5. Pippenger, Michael K & Goering, Gregory E, 1993. "A Note on the Empirical Power of Unit Root Tests under Threshold Processes," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(4), pages 473-81, November.
  6. Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and some Theory," Working Papers 98-01, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  7. Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1555-1596, November.
  8. Frédérique Bec & Mélika Ben Salem & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Real exchange rates and real interest rates : a nonlinear perspective," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 72(2), pages 177-194.
  9. John Huizinga & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1985. "Monetary Policy Regime Shifts and the Unusual Behavior of Real Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1678, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  11. Arusha Cooray, 2002. "The Fisher Effect: A Review of the Literature," Research Papers 0206, Macquarie University, Department of Economics.
  12. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-45, August.
  13. Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001. "Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-76, April.
  14. Kim, Dong Heon & Denise R Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2003. "Nonlinearity in the Fed's Monetary Policy Rule," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 121, Royal Economic Society.
  15. Anderson, Heather M, 1997. "Transaction Costs and Non-linear Adjustment towards Equilibrium in the US Treasury Bill Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 465-84, November.
  16. Henry, O.T., 1999. "Changes in Regime and the Long Run Fisher Effect: a Threshold Cointegration Analysis," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 720, The University of Melbourne.
  17. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
  18. Sola, Martin & Driffill, John, 1994. "Testing the term structure of interest rates using a stationary vector autoregression with regime switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 601-628.
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