Real exchange rates and real interest rates : a nonlinear perspective
In this paper we use a Threshold AutoRegressive (TAR) model to capture the nonlinear dynamics of monthly real effective exchange rate data for the G7 countries. The novelty of our approach relates to the use of the real interest differential as the switching variable. This choice allows us to consider jointly the nonlinearity and nonstationarity issues using rÃ©cent advances in asymptotic theory. We find that the null of linearity is easily rejected against the nonlinear model for ail currencies considered. Further, for five out of the seven countries, where the null of unit root is rejected, we report evidence of quite rapid mean reversion.
|Date of creation:||01 Jun 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Fax: +32 10473945
Web page: http://www.uclouvain.be/ires
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hali J. Edison & William R. Melick, 1995.
"Alternative approaches to real exchange rates and real interest rates: three up and three down,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
518, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Edison, Hali J & Melick, William R, 1999. "Alternative Approaches to Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Rates: Three Up and Three Down," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 93-111, April.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991.
"Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Tom Doan, . "KPSS: RATS procedure to perform KPSS (Kwiatowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin) stationarity test," Statistical Software Components RTS00100, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Shin, Dong Wan & Lee, Oesook, 2001. "Tests for Asymmetry in Possibly Nonstationary Time Series Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 233-44, April.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988.
"Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
- Henry, Olan T. & Olekalns, Nilss, 2002. "Does the Australian dollar real exchange rate display mean reversion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 651-666, October.
- Bergman, U. Michael & Hansson, Jesper, 2005. "Real exchange rates and switching regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 121-138, February.
- Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-80.
- MacKinnon, James G. & White, Halbert, 1985.
"Some heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimators with improved finite sample properties,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 305-325, September.
- James G. MacKinnon & Halbert White, 1983. "Some Heteroskedasticity Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimators with Improved Finite Sample Properties," Working Papers 537, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Ronald Macdonald, 1995.
"Long-Run Exchange Rate Modeling: A Survey of the Recent Evidence,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(3), pages 437-489, September.
- Ronald MacDonald, 1995. "Long-Run Exchange Rate Modeling; A Survey of the Recent Evidence," IMF Working Papers 95/14, International Monetary Fund.
- Cletus C. Coughlin & Kees Koedijk, 1990. "What do we know about the long-run real exchange rate?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 36-48.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- Berka, Martin, 2005. "General Equilibrium Model of Arbitrage Trade and Real Exchange Rate Persistence," MPRA Paper 234, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Schnatz, Bernd & Vijselaar, Focco & Osbat, Chiara, 2003. "Productivity and the ('synthetic') euro-dollar exchange rate," Working Paper Series 0225, European Central Bank.
- Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P, 2001.
"Why is it so Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2003. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 85-107, May.
- Lutz Kilian & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Why is it so difficult to beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-031/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Lutz Kilian & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Why Is It So Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 464, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2001. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Working Paper Series 0088, European Central Bank.
- Edison, Hali J. & Pauls, B. Dianne, 1993.
"A re-assessment of the relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rates: 1974-1990,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 165-187, April.
- Hali J. Edison & B. Dianne Pauls, 1991. "Re-assessment of the relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rates: 1974-1990," International Finance Discussion Papers 408, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Sercu, Piet & Uppal, Raman & Van Hulle, Cynthia, 1995. " The Exchange Rate in the Presence of Transaction Costs: Implications for Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1309-19, September.
- Paul R. Krugman, 1988.
"Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics,"
NBER Working Papers
2481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997.
"Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-79, August.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Michael-Nobay-Peel ESTAR models," Statistical Software Components RTZ00113, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Alexius, Annika, 2005. "Productivity shocks and real exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 555-566, April.
- Lawrence H. Officer, 1982. "The Purchasing-Power-Parity Theory of Gerrard de Malynes," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 256-259, Summer.
- Michael Pippenger & Gregory Goering, 2000. "Additional results on the power of unit root and cointegration tests under threshold processes," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(10), pages 641-644.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ctl:louvre:2006024. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sebastien SCHILLINGS)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.