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Banking globalization and international business cycles: Cross-border chained credit contracts and financial accelerators

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  • Ueda, Kozo

Abstract

This paper constructs a two-country DSGE model to study the nature of the recent financial crisis and its effects that spread immediately throughout the world owing to the globalization of banking. In the model, financial intermediaries (FIs) enter into chained credit contracts at home and abroad, engaging in cross-border lending to entrepreneurs by undertaking cross-border borrowing from investors. The FIs as well as the entrepreneurs in two countries are credit constrained, so all of their net worths matter. Our model reveals that under FIs' globalization, adverse shocks that hit one country affect the other, yielding business cycle synchronization on both the real and financial sides. It also suggests that the FIs' globalization, net worth shock, and credit constraints are key to understanding the recent financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Ueda, Kozo, 2012. "Banking globalization and international business cycles: Cross-border chained credit contracts and financial accelerators," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 1-16.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:86:y:2012:i:1:p:1-16
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2011.08.012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Adler, Gustavo & Lizarazo, Sandra, 2015. "Intertwined sovereign and bank solvencies in a simple model of self-fulfilling crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 428-448.
    2. Dedola, Luca & Karadi, Peter & Lombardo, Giovanni, 2013. "Global implications of national unconventional policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 66-85.
    3. Luca Guerrieri & Matteo Iacoviello & Raoul Minetti, 2013. "Banks, Sovereign Debt, and the International Transmission of Business Cycles," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(1), pages 181-213.
    4. Shen, Pei-Long & Li, Wen & Wang, Xiao-Ting & Su, Chi-Wei, 2015. "Contagion effect of the European financial crisis on China's stock markets: Interdependence and pure contagion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 193-199.
    5. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jancokova, Martina, 2017. "Financial Globalisation, Monetary Policy Spillovers and Macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 Shocks," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 314, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    6. Gustavo Adler, 2012. "Intertwined Sovereign and Bank Solvencies in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Crisis," IMF Working Papers 12/178, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Jean-Christophe Poutineau & Gauthier Vermandel, 2014. "Intégration bancaire et conjoncture macroéconomique dans une union monétaire hétérogène," Post-Print hal-01275874, HAL.
    8. Davis, J. Scott, 2015. "The macroeconomic effects of debt- and equity-based capital inflows," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 81-95.
    9. Toyoichiro Shirota, 2013. "What is the Major Determinant of Credit Flows through Cross-Border Banking?," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 13-E-5, Bank of Japan.
    10. Andrej Sokol & Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, 2017. "The International Credit Channel of U.S. Monetary Policy and Financial Shocks," 2017 Meeting Papers 724, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Jean-François Rouillard, 2015. "National Financial Frictions and International Business Cycle Synchronization," Cahiers de recherche 15-12, Departement d'Economique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    12. Claudia Busl & Marcus Kappler, 2013. "Does Foreign Direct Investment Synchronise Business Cycles? Results from a Panel Approach," WWWforEurope Working Papers series 23, WWWforEurope.
    13. Enders, Zeno & Peter, Alexandra, 2015. "Global Banking, Trade, and the International Transmission of the Great Recession," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113022, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Kang, Hyunju, 2013. "Behind the scenes of abandoning a fixed exchange rate regime," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3145-3156.
    15. Mikhail Stolbov, 2014. "International Credit Cycles: A Regional Perspective," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 21-47.
    16. Banerjee, Ryan & Devereux, Michael B. & Lombardo, Giovanni, 2016. "Self-oriented monetary policy, global financial markets and excess volatility of international capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 275-297.
    17. JEAN-CHRISTOPHE POUTINEAU & GAUTHIER Vermandel, 2013. "Integration Bancaire Et Conjoncture Macroeconomique Dans Une Union Monetaire Heterogene: The Macroeconomic Consequences Of Banking Integration In An Heterogenous Monetary Union," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 56(3-4), pages 241-260.
    18. Lathaporn Ratanavararak, 2018. "The Impact of Imperfect Financial Integration and Trade on Macroeconomic Volatility and Welfare in Emerging Markets," PIER Discussion Papers 79, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Jan 2018.
    19. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Pengfei Jia, 2017. "Macroprudential Policy Coordination in a Currency Union'," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 235, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
    20. Victoria Nuguer, 2016. "Financial Intermediation in a Global Environment," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 291-344, September.
    21. Kopoin, Alexandre, 2015. "Cross-border Banking, Spillover Effects and International Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 65515, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Apr 2015.
    22. repec:kap:iecepo:v:14:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10368-016-0342-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Luk, Paul, 2015. "Chained financial contracts and global banks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 87-90.
    24. Kollmann, Robert, 2016. "Discussion of "Financial Intermediation in a Global Environment" (Victoria Nuguer)," MPRA Paper 70191, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial accelerator; Financial intermediaries; Correlation (quantity) puzzle; Business cycle synchronization; Contagion; Monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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