IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/jechis/v84y2024i3p874-916_7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Great Depression as a Savings Glut

Author

Listed:
  • Degorce, Victor
  • Monnet, Eric

Abstract

New data covering 23 countries reveal that banking crises of the Great Depression coincided with a sharp international increase in deposits at savings institutions and life insurance. Deposits fled from commercial banks to alternative forms of savings. This fueled a credit crunch since other institutions did not replace bank lending. While asset prices fell, savings held in savings institutions and life insurance companies increased as a share of GDP and in real terms. These findings provide new explanations for the fall in credit and aggregate demand in the 1930s. They illustrate the need to consider nonbank financial institutions when studying banking crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Degorce, Victor & Monnet, Eric, 2024. "The Great Depression as a Savings Glut," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 84(3), pages 874-916, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:84:y:2024:i:3:p:874-916_7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022050724000342/type/journal_article
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Edouard Challe & Julien Matheron & Xavier Ragot & Juan F. Rubio‐Ramirez, 2017. "Precautionary saving and aggregate demand," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(2), pages 435-478, July.
    2. Hautcoeur, Pierre-Cyrille, 2004. "Efficiency, competition, and the development of life insurance in France (1870-1939): Or: should we trust pension funds?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 205-232, July.
    3. Ashoka Mody & Franziska Ohnsorge & Damiano Sandri, 2012. "Precautionary Savings in the Great Recession," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(1), pages 114-138, April.
    4. Christophe Chamley, 2014. "When Demand Creates its Own Supply: Saving Traps," Post-Print halshs-01109084, HAL.
    5. Anderson, Richard G. & Bordo, Michael & Duca, John V., 2017. "Money and velocity during financial crises: From the great depression to the great recession," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 32-49.
    6. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni, 2017. "Credit Crises, Precautionary Savings, and the Liquidity Trap," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(3), pages 1427-1467.
    7. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
    8. Luca Fornaro & Federica Romei, 2019. "The Paradox of Global Thrift," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(11), pages 3745-3779, November.
    9. Òscar Jordá & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "Sovereigns Versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 45-79.
    10. Enrique Jorge-Sotelo, 2020. "The limits to lender of last resort interventions in emerging economies: evidence from the Gold Standard and the Great Depression in Spain," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 24(1), pages 98-133.
    11. Deaton, Angus, 1991. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-1248, September.
    12. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-00754571 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Òscar Jordà & Katharina Knoll & Dmitry Kuvshinov & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2019. "The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(3), pages 1225-1298.
    14. Christophe Chamley, 2012. "A Paradox of Thrift in General Equilibrium Without Forward Markets," Post-Print halshs-00754571, HAL.
    15. Christina D. Romer, 1990. "The Great Crash and the Onset of the Great Depression," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(3), pages 597-624.
    16. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    17. Patrice Baubeau & Eric Monnet & Angelo Riva & Stefano Ungaro, 2021. "Flight‐to‐safety and the credit crunch: a new history of the banking crises in France during the Great Depression," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 74(1), pages 223-250, February.
    18. Matthew Baron & Emil Verner & Wei Xiong, 2021. "Banking Crises Without Panics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(1), pages 51-113.
    19. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2008. "Great Expectations and the End of the Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1476-1516, September.
    20. Thomas Piketty & Gabriel Zucman, 2014. "Capital is Back: Wealth-Income Ratios in Rich Countries 1700–2010," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(3), pages 1255-1310.
    21. Philip T. Hoffman & Gilles Postel-Vinay & Jean-Laurent Rosenthal, 2019. "Dark Matter Credit: The Development of Peer-to-Peer Lending and Banking in France," Post-Print halshs-02103176, HAL.
    22. Mr. Christopher Carroll & Mr. Martin Sommer & Mr. Jiri Slacalek, 2012. "Dissecting Saving Dynamics: Measuring Wealth, Precautionary, and Credit Effects," IMF Working Papers 2012/219, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Baker, Mae & Collins, Michael, 2003. "The asset portfolio composition of British life insurance firms, 1900 1965," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(02), pages 137-164, October.
    24. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    25. Calomiris, Charles W. & Jaremski, Matthew & Wheelock, David C., 2022. "Interbank connections, contagion and bank distress in the Great Depression✰," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    26. O'Hara, Maureen & Easley, David, 1979. "The Postal Savings System in the Depression," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(3), pages 741-753, September.
    27. Martha L. Olney, 1999. "Avoiding Default: The Role of Credit in the Consumption Collapse of 1930," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(1), pages 319-335.
    28. Sebastian Fleitas & Matthew Jaremski & Steven Sprick Schuster, 2023. "The U.S. Postal Savings System and the collapse of building and loan associations during the Great Depression," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 89(4), pages 1196-1215, April.
    29. Christophe Chamley, 2014. "When Demand Creates its Own Supply: Saving Traps," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(2), pages 651-680.
    30. Christophe Chamley, 2012. "A Paradox Of Thrift In General Equilibrium Without Forward Markets," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(6), pages 1215-1235, December.
    31. Guinnane, Timothy W., 2001. "Cooperatives As Information Machines: German Rural Credit Cooperatives, 1883–1914," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 61(2), pages 366-389, June.
    32. Rose, Jonathan D. & Snowden, Kenneth A., 2013. "The New Deal and the origins of the modern American real estate loan contract," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 548-566.
    33. Edouard Challe, 2020. "Uninsured Unemployment Risk and Optimal Monetary Policy in a Zero-Liquidity Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 241-283, April.
    34. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1, June.
    35. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-276, June.
    36. Matthew Jaremski & Brady Plastaras, 2016. "The competition and coexistence of mutual and commercial banks in New England, 1870–1914," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 10(2), pages 151-179, may.
    37. Kris James Mitchener & Gary Richardson, 2019. "Network Contagion and Interbank Amplification during the Great Depression," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(2), pages 465-507.
    38. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Paul Krugman, 2012. "Debt, Deleveraging, and the Liquidity Trap: A Fisher-Minsky-Koo Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(3), pages 1469-1513.
    39. Ben Bemanke & Harold James, 1991. "The Gold Standard, Deflation, and Financial Crisis in the Great Depression: An International Comparison," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Markets and Financial Crises, pages 33-68, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Richard S. Grossman, 2010. "Unsettled Account: The Evolution of Banking in the Industrialized World since 1800," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9219.
    41. Romer, Christina D., 1992. "What Ended the Great Depression?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(4), pages 757-784, December.
    42. Richard S. Grossman & Christopher M. Meissner, 2010. "International aspects of the Great Depression and the crisis of 2007: similarities, differences, and lessons," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(3), pages 318-338, Autumn.
    43. Jeremy Edwards & Sheilagh Ogilvie, 1996. "Universal banks and German industrialization: a reappraisal," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 49(3), pages 427-446, August.
    44. Eichengreen, Barry, 1996. "Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, 1919-1939," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195101133, Decembrie.
    45. Kiril Danailov Kossev, 2008. "The Banking Sector and the Great Depression in Bulgaria, 1924 - 1938: Interlocking and Financial Sector Profitability," Working Papers 76, Bank of Greece.
    46. Bernanke, Ben S, 1995. "The Macroeconomics of the Great Depression: A Comparative Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 1-28, February.
    47. Joshua K. Hausman & Paul W. Rhode & Johannes F. Wieland, 2019. "Recovery from the Great Depression: The Farm Channel in Spring 1933," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(2), pages 427-472, February.
    48. Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
    49. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1978. "The Household Balance Sheet and the Great Depression," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(4), pages 918-937, December.
    50. Flora Macher, 2019. "The Hungarian twin crisis of 1931," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 72(2), pages 641-668, May.
    51. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 52-82.
    52. Bülbül, Dilek & Schmidt, Reinhard H. & Schüwer, Ulrich, 2013. "Savings banks and cooperative banks in Europe," SAFE White Paper Series 5, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    53. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-01109084 is not listed on IDEAS
    54. Mathy, Gabriel P., 2016. "Stock volatility, return jumps and uncertainty shocks during the Great Depression," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 165-192, August.
    55. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2017. "New Evidence on the Aftermath of Financial Crises in Advanced Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 3072-3118, October.
    56. Fleitas, Sebastian & Fishback, Price & Snowden, Kenneth, 2018. "Economic crisis and the demise of a popular contractual form: Building & Loans in the 1930s," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 28-44.
    57. Christophe Chamley, 2012. "A Paradox of Thrift in General Equilibrium Without Forward Markets," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00754571, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Monnet, Eric & Velde, François R., 2020. "Money, Banking, and Old-School Historical Economics," CEPR Discussion Papers 15348, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Marodin, Fabrizio Almeida & Mitchener, Kris James & Richardson, Gary, 2024. "Contagion of fear: Panics, money, and the Great Depression," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    3. Barry Eichengreen, 2021. "Gold and South Africa’s Great Depression," Economic History of Developing Regions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 175-193, May.
    4. Bing Han & David Hirshleifer & Johan Walden, 2023. "Visibility Bias in the Transmission of Consumption Beliefs and Undersaving," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1647-1704, June.
    5. Arjen van der Heide & Sebastian Kohl, 2024. "Private Insurance, Public Welfare, and Financial Markets: Alpine and Maritime Countries in Comparative-Historical Perspective," Politics & Society, , vol. 52(2), pages 268-303, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael D. Bordo, 2017. "An Historical Perspective on the Quest for Financial Stability and the Monetary Policy Regime," Economics Working Papers 17108, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    2. Nicholas Crafts & Peter Fearon, 2010. "Lessons from the 1930s Great Depression," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(3), pages 285-317, Autumn.
    3. Patrice Baubeau & Eric Monnet & Angelo Riva & Stefano Ungaro, 2021. "Flight‐to‐safety and the credit crunch: a new history of the banking crises in France during the Great Depression," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 74(1), pages 223-250, February.
    4. Peter Temin, 1998. "Causes of American business cycles: an essay in economic historiography," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 42(Jun), pages 37-64.
    5. Fratianni, Michele & Giri, Federico, 2017. "The tale of two great crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 5-31.
    6. Jaremski, Matthew & Mathy, Gabriel, 2018. "How was the quantitative easing program of the 1930s Unwound?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 27-49.
    7. Nicholas Crafts, 2014. "What Does the 1930s' Experience Tell Us about the Future of the Eurozone?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 713-727, July.
    8. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Sergey K. Egiev, 2024. "Liquidity Traps: A Unified Theory of the Great Depression and Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 33195, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2017. "Deep Recessions, Fast Recoveries, And Financial Crises: Evidence From The American Record," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 527-541, January.
    10. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "When credit bites back: leverage, business cycles, and crises," Working Paper Series 2011-27, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    11. Monnet, Eric & Velde, François R., 2020. "Money, Banking, and Old-School Historical Economics," CEPR Discussion Papers 15348, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Grossman, Richard, 2016. "Banking Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 11268, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    14. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2022. "Financial Intermediation and the Economy," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2022-2, Nobel Prize Committee.
    15. Kenny, Seán & Lennard, Jason & Turner, John D., 2021. "The macroeconomic effects of banking crises: Evidence from the United Kingdom, 1750–1938," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    16. Michael D. Bordo, 2017. "An historical perspective on financial stability and monetary policy regimes: A case for caution in central banks current obsession with financial stability," Working Paper 2018/5, Norges Bank.
    17. Hogan, Thomas L. & White, Lawrence H., 2021. "Hayek, Cassel, and the origins of the great depression," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 241-251.
    18. Bordo, M.D. & Meissner, C.M., 2016. "Fiscal and Financial Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 355-412, Elsevier.
    19. Campbell, Gareth & Coyle, Christopher & Turner, John D., 2016. "This time is different: Causes and consequences of British banking instability over the long run," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 74-94.
    20. Caruso, Alberto & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the Euro Area crisis: This time was different," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 333-355.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • N2 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:84:y:2024:i:3:p:874-916_7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirk Stebbing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cambridge.org/jeh .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.