Recovery from the Great Depression: The Farm Channel in Spring 1933
In the four months following the trough of the Great Depression in March 1933, industrial production rose 57 percent. We argue that an important source of recovery was the direct effect of dollar devaluation on farm prices, incomes, and consumption. We call this the farm channel. Using daily spot and futures crop price data, we document that devaluation raised prices of traded crops and their close substitutes (other grains). And using novel state and county auto sales data, we document that recovery proceeded much more rapidly in farm areas. These cross-sectional effects are large, explain a substantial fraction of cross-state variation in auto sales growth, and are concentrated in areas growing traded crops or close substitutes. We also find that given the same exposure to farm price changes, spending rose more in counties with more farm debt. We aggregate our cross-sectional results using a simple incomplete markets model in which indebted farmers have high MPCs. It implies that the farm channel accounts for 30% or more of the spring recovery.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2017|
|Note:||DAE EFG IFM ME|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Tobias Broer & Niels-Jakob H. Hansen & Per Krusell & Erik Öberg, 2016.
"The New Keynesian Transmission Mechanism: A Heterogenous-Agent Perspective,"
NBER Working Papers
22418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Broer, Tobias & Harbo Hansen, Niels-Jakob & Krusell, Per & Öberg, Erik, 2016. "The New Keynesian Transmission Mechanism: A Heterogenous-Agent Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 11382, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Bordo, Michael David, 1980. "The Effects of Monetary Change on Relative Commodity Prices and the Role of Long-Term Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1088-1109, December.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, January.
- Depew, Briggs & Fishback, Price V. & Rhode, Paul W., 2013. "New deal or no deal in the Cotton South: The effect of the AAA on the agricultural labor structure," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 466-486.
- Briggs Depew & Price Fishback & Paul Rhode, 2012. "New Deal or No Deal in the Cotton South: The Effect of the AAA on the Agriculture Labor Structure," NBER Chapters,in: The Microeconomics of New Deal Policy National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sebastian Edwards, 2015. "Academics as Economic Advisers: Gold, the ‘Brains Trust,’ and FDR," NBER Working Papers 21380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1, November.
- Raymond W. Goldsmith & Robert E. Lipsey & Morris Mendelson, 1963. "Introduction to "Studies in the National Balance Sheet of the United States, Vol. 2"," NBER Chapters,in: Studies in the National Balance Sheet of the United States, Volume 2, pages 1-40 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Naoya Kato & Takuji Kawamoto, 2016. "Corporate Profits and Business Fixed Investment: Why are Firms So Cautious about Investment?," Bank of Japan Review Series 16-E-2, Bank of Japan.
- Fishback, Price V. & Horrace, William C. & Kantor, Shawn, 2005. "Did New Deal Grant Programs Stimulate Local Economies? A Study of Federal Grants and Retail Sales During the Great Depression," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 65(01), pages 36-71, March.
- Price V. Fishback & Werner Troesken & Trevor Kollmann & Michael Haines & Paul W. Rhode & Melissa Thomasson, 2011. "Information and the Impact of Climate and Weather on Mortality Rates During the Great Depression," NBER Chapters,in: The Economics of Climate Change: Adaptations Past and Present, pages 131-167 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Raymond W. Goldsmith & Robert E. Lipsey, 1963. "Studies in the National Balance Sheet of the United States, Volume 1," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gold63-1, November.
- Raymond W. Goldsmith & Robert E. Lipsey & Morris Mendelson, 1963. "Studies in the National Balance Sheet of the United States, Volume 2," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gold63-2, November. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23172. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.