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Supply-Side Policies in the Depression: Evidence from France

Author

Listed:
  • Jérémie Cohen-Setton

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Joshua K. Hausman

    (University of Michigan)

  • Johannes F. Wieland

    (University of California, San Diego)

Abstract

The effects of supply-side policies in depressed economies are controversial. This Working Paper sheds light on this debate using evidence from France in the 1930s. In 1936, France departed from the gold standard and implemented mandatory wage increases and hours restrictions. Deflation ended but output stagnated. The authors present time-series and cross-sectional evidence that these supply-side policies, in particular the 40-hour law, contributed to French stagflation. These results are inconsistent both with the standard one-sector new Keynesian model and with a medium-scale, multi-sector model calibrated to match the authors’ cross-sectional estimates. They conclude that the new Keynesian model is a poor guide to the effects of supply-side shocks in depressed economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Jérémie Cohen-Setton & Joshua K. Hausman & Johannes F. Wieland, 2017. "Supply-Side Policies in the Depression: Evidence from France," Working Paper Series WP17-4, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp17-4
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    1. Barry Eichengreen & Asmaa El-Ganainy & Rui Esteves & Kris James Mitchener, 2019. "Public Debt Through the Ages," NBER Working Papers 25494, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Yihao Xue & Qiaoyu Liang & Bing Tong, 2022. "The Effects of Energy Supply Shocks and Interest Rate Liberalization in China," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2022/1, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    3. Yangyang Ji, 2019. "Are Supply-side Reforms Contractionary at the Zero Lower Bound?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 65(1), pages 68-83.
    4. Julio Garín & Robert Lester & Eric Sims, 2019. "Are Supply Shocks Contractionary at the ZLB? Evidence from Utilization-Adjusted TFP Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(1), pages 160-175, March.
    5. Yangyang Ji, 2021. "Are Technology Shocks More Expansionary at the ZLB?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 67(3), pages 296-317.
    6. Joshua K. Hausman & Johannes F. Wieland, 2015. "Overcoming the Lost Decades? Abenomics after Three Years," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(2 (Fall)), pages 385-431.
    7. Ms. Elif C Arbatli Saxegaard & Mr. Dennis P Botman & Kevin Clinton & Pietro Cova & Vitor Gaspar & Zoltan Jakab & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Constant A Lonkeng Ngouana & Mr. Joannes Mongardini & Hou Wang, 2016. "Reflating Japan: Time to Get Unconventional?," IMF Working Papers 2016/157, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Jalil, Andrew J. & Rua, Gisela, 2016. "Inflation expectations and recovery in spring 1933," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 26-50.
    9. Tong, Bing, 2021. "The effects of capacity reduction policy under the interest rate peg in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    10. Jordan Roulleau‐Pasdeloup & Anastasia Zhutova, 2022. "Labor Market Policies in a Deep Recession: Lessons from Hoover's Policies during the U.S. Great Depression," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(1), pages 247-283, February.
    11. Daniel, Volker & Steege, Lucas ter, 2020. "Inflation expectations and the recovery from the Great Depression in Germany," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    12. Bing Tong, 2020. "Capacity Reduction Policy Under the Interest Rate Peg in China," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2020/2, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Depression; stagflation;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-

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