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Reflating Japan: Time to Get Unconventional?

Author

Listed:
  • Ms. Elif C Arbatli Saxegaard
  • Mr. Dennis P Botman
  • Kevin Clinton
  • Pietro Cova
  • Vitor Gaspar
  • Zoltan Jakab
  • Mr. Douglas Laxton
  • Mr. Constant A Lonkeng Ngouana
  • Mr. Joannes Mongardini
  • Hou Wang

Abstract

Japan has ambitious economic goals: 3 percent nominal growth; 2 percent inflation; and a primary budget surplus. Abenomics has employed the three arrows of monetary, fiscal and structural policies, but the goals remain out of reach. We propose that countercyclical measures be embedded in long-run frameworks that anchor expectations for inflation and public debt. In addition, we argue for an incomes policy to assist reflation. Model simulations suggest that, combined, these proposals would make headway towards the goals, with, on balance, a better chance of success than the more unconventional policy alternatives proposed by Krugman, Svensson, and Turner from a risk-return perspective.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Elif C Arbatli Saxegaard & Mr. Dennis P Botman & Kevin Clinton & Pietro Cova & Vitor Gaspar & Zoltan Jakab & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Constant A Lonkeng Ngouana & Mr. Joannes Mongardini & Hou Wang, 2016. "Reflating Japan: Time to Get Unconventional?," IMF Working Papers 2016/157, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2016/157
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    Cited by:

    1. Mariana Colacelli & Emilio Fernández Corugedo, 2018. "Macroeconomic Effects of Japan’s Demographics: Can Structural Reforms Reverse Them?," IMF Working Papers 2018/248, International Monetary Fund.
    2. GOTO Yasuo & Scott WILBUR, 2017. "Efficiency among Japanese SMEs: In the context of the zombie firm hypothesis and firm size," Discussion papers 17123, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Goto, Yasuo & Wilbur, Scott, 2019. "Unfinished business: Zombie firms among SME in Japan’s lost decades," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 105-112.
    4. Fructuoso Borrallo Egea & Pedro del Río López, 2021. "Monetary policy strategy and inflation in Japan," Occasional Papers 2116, Banco de España.
    5. Guido Ascari & Jacopo Bonchi, 2022. "(Dis)Solving the Zero Lower Bound Equilibrium through Income Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 519-535, March.
    6. Fructuoso Borrallo Egea & Pedro del Río López, 2021. "Estrategia de política monetaria e inflación en Japón," Occasional Papers 2116, Banco de España.
    7. Vitor Gaspar & Maurice Obstfeld & Ratna Sahay & Douglas Laxton & Dennis P Botman & Kevin Clinton & Romain A Duval & Kotaro Ishi & Zoltan Jakab & Laura Jaramillo & Constant A Lonkeng Ngouana & Tommaso , 2016. "Macroeconomic Management When Policy Space is Constrained; A Comprehensive, Consistent and Coordinated Approach to Economic Policy," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 16/09, International Monetary Fund.

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