IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jmoncb/v49y2017i2-3p273-317.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Supply‐Side Policies in the Depression: Evidence from France

Author

Listed:
  • JÉRÉMIE COHEN‐SETTON
  • JOSHUA K. HAUSMAN
  • JOHANNES F. WIELAND

Abstract

The effects of supply‐side policies in depressed economies are controversial. We shed light on this debate using evidence from France in the 1930s. In 1936, France departed from the gold standard and implemented mandatory wage increases and hours restrictions. Deflation ended but output stagnated. We present time‐series and cross‐sectional evidence that these supply‐side policies, in particular the 40‐hour law, contributed to French stagflation. These results are inconsistent both with the standard one‐sector New Keynesian model and with a medium scale, multisector model calibrated to match our cross‐sectional estimates. We conclude that the New Keynesian model is a poor guide to the effects of supply‐side shocks in depressed economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Jérémie Cohen‐Setton & Joshua K. Hausman & Johannes F. Wieland, 2017. "Supply‐Side Policies in the Depression: Evidence from France," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 273-317, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:49:y:2017:i:2-3:p:273-317
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12380
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12380
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jmcb.12380?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joshua K. Hausman & Johannes F. Wieland, 2014. "Abenomics: Preliminary Analysis and Outlook," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 1-76.
    2. Eric T. Swanson & John C. Williams, 2014. "Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(10), pages 3154-3185, October.
    3. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2002. "The French Depression in the 1930s," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 73-99, January.
    4. Romer, Christina D., 1992. "What Ended the Great Depression?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(4), pages 757-784, December.
    5. David Le Bris & Pierre-Cyrille Hautcoeur, 2010. "A challenge to triumphant optimists? A new blue chips Index for the Paris stock-exchange (1854-2007)," Post-Print halshs-00754455, HAL.
    6. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    7. Eichengreen, Barry, 1996. "Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, 1919-1939," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195101133.
    8. Dupor, Bill & Li, Rong, 2015. "The expected inflation channel of government spending in the postwar U.S," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 36-56.
    9. Editorial Article, 0. "The Information for Authors," Economics of Contemporary Russia, Regional Public Organization for Assistance to the Development of Institutions of the Department of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, issue 3.
    10. Stephanie Lo & Kenneth Rogoff, 2015. "Secular stagnation, debt overhang and other rationales for sluggish growth, six years on," BIS Working Papers 482, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Johannes Wieland, 2012. "The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models: Should Central Banks Raise Their Inflation Targets in Light of the Zero Lower Bound?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(4), pages 1371-1406.
    12. Editorial Article, 0. "The Information for Authors," Economics of Contemporary Russia, Regional Public Organization for Assistance to the Development of Institutions of the Department of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, issue 2.
    13. Boneva, Lena Mareen & Braun, R. Anton & Waki, Yuichiro, 2016. "Some unpleasant properties of loglinearized solutions when the nominal rate is zero," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 216-232.
    14. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G, 1997. "Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 249-283, April.
    15. Editorial Article, 0. "The Information for Authors," Economics of Contemporary Russia, Regional Public Organization for Assistance to the Development of Institutions of the Department of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, issue 2.
    16. Klenow, Peter J. & Malin, Benjamin A., 2010. "Microeconomic Evidence on Price-Setting," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 6, pages 231-284, Elsevier.
    17. David Altig & Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Jesper Linde, 2011. "Firm-Specific Capital, Nominal Rigidities and the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 225-247, April.
    18. Todd C. Neumann & Jason E. Taylor & Price Fishback, 2013. "Comparisons of Weekly Hours over the Past Century and the Importance of Work-Sharing Policies in the 1930s," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 105-110, May.
    19. Le Bris, David & Hautcœur, Pierre-Cyrille, 2010. "A challenge to triumphant optimists? A blue chips index for the Paris stock exchange, 1854–2007," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 141-183, October.
    20. Editorial Article, 0. "The Information for Authors," Economics of Contemporary Russia, Regional Public Organization for Assistance to the Development of Institutions of the Department of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, issue 4.
    21. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2008. "Great Expectations and the End of the Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1476-1516, September.
    22. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2012. "Was the New Deal Contractionary?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 524-555, February.
    23. Ivan Werning, 2011. "Managing a Liquidity Trap: Monetary and Fiscal Policy," 2011 Meeting Papers 1435, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    24. Joshua K. Hausman & Johannes F. Wieland, 2014. "Abenomics: Preliminary Analysis and Outlook," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(1 (Spring), pages 1-76.
    25. Eggertsson, Gauti & Ferrero, Andrea & Raffo, Andrea, 2014. "Can structural reforms help Europe?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 2-22.
    26. Joshua K. Hausman, 2016. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Recovery: The Case of the 1936 Veterans' Bonus," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(4), pages 1100-1143, April.
    27. White, Eugene Nelson, 1995. "The French Revolution and the Politics of Government Finance, 1770–1815," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 55(2), pages 227-255, June.
    28. Stephen G. Donald & Kevin Lang, 2007. "Inference with Difference-in-Differences and Other Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(2), pages 221-233, May.
    29. Eichengreen, Barry & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1985. "Exchange Rates and Economic Recovery in the 1930s," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(4), pages 925-946, December.
    30. David Altig & Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Jesper Linde, 2011. "Firm-Specific Capital, Nominal Rigidities and the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 225-247, April.
    31. Editorial Article, 0. "The Information for Authors," Economics of Contemporary Russia, Regional Public Organization for Assistance to the Development of Institutions of the Department of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, issue 4.
    32. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Johannes Wieland, 2012. "The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models: Should Central Banks Raise Their Inflation Targets in Light of the Zero Lower Bound?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(4), pages 1371-1406.
    33. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 2004. "New Deal Policies and the Persistence of the Great Depression: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 779-816, August.
    34. Fishback, Price & Kachanovskaya, Valentina, 2015. "The Multiplier for Federal Spending in the States During the Great Depression," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 75(1), pages 125-162, March.
    35. Emi Nakamura & J?n Steinsson, 2014. "Fiscal Stimulus in a Monetary Union: Evidence from US Regions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 753-792, March.
    36. de Bromhead, Alan & Eichengreen, Barry & O'Rourke, Kevin H., 2013. "Political Extremism in the 1920s and 1930s: Do German Lessons Generalize?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 73(2), pages 371-406, June.
    37. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1.
    38. Jean-Charles Asselain, 1974. "Une erreur de politique économique : la loi de quarante heures de 1936," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 25(4), pages 672-705.
    39. Editorial Article, 0. "The Information for Authors," Economics of Contemporary Russia, Regional Public Organization for Assistance to the Development of Institutions of the Department of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, issue 3.
    40. Editorial Article, 0. "The Information for Authors," Economics of Contemporary Russia, Regional Public Organization for Assistance to the Development of Institutions of the Department of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, issue 1.
    41. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Paul Krugman, 2012. "Debt, Deleveraging, and the Liquidity Trap: A Fisher-Minsky-Koo Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(3), pages 1469-1513.
    42. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2008. "Five Facts about Prices: A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(4), pages 1415-1464.
    43. Temin, Peter & Wigmore, Barrie A., 1990. "The end of one big deflation," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 483-502, October.
    44. Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2008. "Trend Inflation, Indexation, and Inflation Persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 2101-2126, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jordan Roulleau‐Pasdeloup & Anastasia Zhutova, 2022. "Labor Market Policies in a Deep Recession: Lessons from Hoover's Policies during the U.S. Great Depression," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(1), pages 247-283, February.
    2. Daniel, Volker & Steege, Lucas ter, 2020. "Inflation expectations and the recovery from the Great Depression in Germany," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    3. Yihao Xue & Qiaoyu Liang & Bing Tong, 2022. "The Effects of Energy Supply Shocks and Interest Rate Liberalization in China," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2022/1, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    4. Barry Eichengreen & Asmaa El-Ganainy & Rui Esteves & Kris James Mitchener, 2019. "Public Debt Through the Ages," NBER Working Papers 25494, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Yangyang Ji, 2021. "Are Technology Shocks More Expansionary at the ZLB?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 67(3), pages 296-317.
    6. Joshua K. Hausman & Johannes F. Wieland, 2015. "Overcoming the Lost Decades? Abenomics after Three Years," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(2 (Fall)), pages 385-431.
    7. Yangyang Ji, 2019. "Are Supply-side Reforms Contractionary at the Zero Lower Bound?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 65(1), pages 68-83.
    8. Ms. Elif C Arbatli Saxegaard & Mr. Dennis P Botman & Kevin Clinton & Pietro Cova & Vitor Gaspar & Zoltan Jakab & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Constant A Lonkeng Ngouana & Mr. Joannes Mongardini & Hou Wang, 2016. "Reflating Japan: Time to Get Unconventional?," IMF Working Papers 2016/157, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Jalil, Andrew J. & Rua, Gisela, 2016. "Inflation expectations and recovery in spring 1933," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 26-50.
    10. Bing Tong, 2020. "Capacity Reduction Policy Under the Interest Rate Peg in China," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2020/2, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    11. Julio Garín & Robert Lester & Eric Sims, 2019. "Are Supply Shocks Contractionary at the ZLB? Evidence from Utilization-Adjusted TFP Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(1), pages 160-175, March.
    12. Barry Eichengreen & Asmaa El-Ganainy & Rui Esteves & Kris James Mitchener, 2019. "Public Debt Through the Ages," NBER Working Papers 25494, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Tong, Bing, 2021. "The effects of capacity reduction policy under the interest rate peg in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jesper Lindé & Mathias Trabandt, 2018. "Should we use linearized models to calculate fiscal multipliers?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(7), pages 937-965, November.
    2. Barry Eichengreen, 2016. "The Great Depression in a Modern Mirror," De Economist, Springer, vol. 164(1), pages 1-17, March.
    3. Deepa D. Datta & Benjamin K. Johannsen & Hannah Kwon & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2021. "Oil, Equities, and the Zero Lower Bound," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 214-253, April.
    4. Kritana Prueksakorn & Cheng-Xu Piao & Hyunchul Ha & Taehyeung Kim, 2015. "Computational and Experimental Investigation for an Optimal Design of Industrial Windows to Allow Natural Ventilation during Wind-Driven Rain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(8), pages 1-22, August.
    5. Hualin Xie & Jinlang Zou & Hailing Jiang & Ning Zhang & Yongrok Choi, 2014. "Spatiotemporal Pattern and Driving Forces of Arable Land-Use Intensity in China: Toward Sustainable Land Management Using Emergy Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(6), pages 1-17, May.
    6. Stephan E. Maurer & Andrei V. Potlogea, 2021. "Male‐biased Demand Shocks and Women's Labour Force Participation: Evidence from Large Oil Field Discoveries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(349), pages 167-188, January.
    7. Tie Hua Zhou & Ling Wang & Keun Ho Ryu, 2015. "Supporting Keyword Search for Image Retrieval with Integration of Probabilistic Annotation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-18, May.
    8. T. Karski, 2019. "Opinions and Controversies in Problem of The So-Called Idiopathic Scoliosis. Information About Etiology, New Classification and New Therapy," Biomedical Journal of Scientific & Technical Research, Biomedical Research Network+, LLC, vol. 12(5), pages 9612-9616, January.
    9. Sung-Won Park & Sung-Yong Son, 2017. "Cost Analysis for a Hybrid Advanced Metering Infrastructure in Korea," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-18, September.
    10. Wesley Mendes-da-Silva, 2020. "What Makes an Article be More Cited?," RAC - Revista de Administração Contemporânea (Journal of Contemporary Administration), ANPAD - Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Administração, vol. 24(6), pages 507-513.
    11. Martin Valtierra-Rodriguez & Juan Pablo Amezquita-Sanchez & Arturo Garcia-Perez & David Camarena-Martinez, 2019. "Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition on FPGA for Condition Monitoring of Broken Bars in Induction Motors," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(9), pages 1-19, August.
    12. Akca Yasar & Gokhan Ozer, 2016. "Determination the Factors that Affect the Use of Enterprise Resource Planning Information System through Technology Acceptance Model," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(10), pages 1-91, September.
    13. Julián Miranda & Angélica Flórez & Gustavo Ospina & Ciro Gamboa & Carlos Flórez & Miguel Altuve, 2020. "Proposal for a System Model for Offline Seismic Event Detection in Colombia," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-17, December.
    14. Wisdom Akpalu & Mintewab Bezabih, 2015. "Tenure Insecurity, Climate Variability and Renting out Decisions among Female Small-Holder Farmers in Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(6), pages 1-16, June.
    15. Wei Chen & Shu-Yu Liu & Chih-Han Chen & Yi-Shan Lee, 2011. "Bounded Memory, Inertia, Sampling and Weighting Model for Market Entry Games," Games, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-13, March.
    16. David Harborth & Sebastian Pape, 2020. "Empirically Investigating Extraneous Influences on the “APCO” Model—Childhood Brand Nostalgia and the Positivity Bias," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-16, December.
    17. Ping Wang & Jie Wang & Guiwu Wei & Cun Wei, 2019. "Similarity Measures of q-Rung Orthopair Fuzzy Sets Based on Cosine Function and Their Applications," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-23, April.
    18. Peterson, Willis L., 1973. "Publication Productivities Of U.S. Economics Department Graduates," Staff Papers 14105, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    19. Taeyeoun Roh & Yujin Jeong & Byungun Yoon, 2017. "Developing a Methodology of Structuring and Layering Technological Information in Patent Documents through Natural Language Processing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-19, November.
    20. He-Yau Kang & Amy H. I. Lee & Tzu-Ting Huang, 2016. "Project Management for a Wind Turbine Construction by Applying Fuzzy Multiple Objective Linear Programming Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-15, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:49:y:2017:i:2-3:p:273-317. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.