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The London Monetary and Economic Conference of 1933 and the End of The Great Depression: A “Change of Regime” Analysis

Listed author(s):
  • Sebastian Edwards

In this paper I analyze the London Monetary and Economic Conference of 1933, an almost forgotten episode in U.S. monetary history. I study how the Conference shaped dollar policy during the second half of 1933 and early 1934. I use daily data to investigate the way in which the Conference and related policies associated to the gold standard affected commodity prices, bond prices, and the stock market. My results show that the Conference itself did not impact commodity prices or the stock market. However, it had a small effect on bond prices. I do find that the events associated with the abandonment of the gold standard impacted prices in a significant way, even before the actual monetary and currency channels were at work. These results are consistent with the “change in regime” hypothesis of Sargent (1983).

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 23204.

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Date of creation: Feb 2017
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23204
Note: DAE IFM
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  1. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1.
  2. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2005. "Great expectations and the end of the depression," Staff Reports 234, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, 1919-1939," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number eich92-1.
  4. Coe, Patrick J, 2002. "Financial Crisis and the Great Depression: A Regime Switching Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 76-93, February.
  5. Barry J. Eichengreen & Jeffrey Sachs, 1984. "Exchange Rates and Economic Recovery in the 1930s," NBER Working Papers 1498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Wigmore, Barrie A., 1987. "Was the Bank Holiday of 1933 Caused by a Run on the Dollar?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(03), pages 739-755, September.
  7. Barry Eichengreen and Marc Uzan., 1990. "The 1933 World Economic Conference as an Instance of Failed International Cooperation," Economics Working Papers 90-149, University of California at Berkeley.
  8. Sebastian Edwards, 2011. "Exchange-Rate Policies in Emerging Countries: Eleven Empirical Regularities From Latin America and East Asia," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 533-563, September.
  9. Peter Temin, 1991. "Lessons from the Great Depression," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262700441, September.
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