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Oil, equities, and the zero lower bound

Author

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  • Deepa Datta
  • Benjamin K Johannsen
  • Hannah Kwon
  • Robert J Vigfusson

Abstract

Since 2008, oil and equity returns have moved together much more than they did previously. In addition, we show that both oil and equity returns have become more responsive to macroeconomic news. Before 2008, there is little evidence that oil returns were responsive to macroeconomic news. We argue that these results are consistent with a new-Keynesian model that includes oil and incorporates the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. Our empirical findings lend support the model's implication that different rules apply at the zero lower bound.

Suggested Citation

  • Deepa Datta & Benjamin K Johannsen & Hannah Kwon & Robert J Vigfusson, 2017. "Oil, equities, and the zero lower bound," BIS Working Papers 617, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:617
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    Cited by:

    1. Édouard Challe, 2018. "Is the Study of Business-Cycle Fluctuations “Scientific?”," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 151-165.
    2. Ron Alquist & Reinhard Ellwanger & Jianjian Jin, 2020. "The effect of oil price shocks on asset markets: Evidence from oil inventory news," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1212-1230, August.
    3. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2019. "Oil prices, exchange rates, and interest rates," 2019 Meeting Papers 592, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Nguyen, Bao H. & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2019. "Asymmetric reactions of the US natural gas market and economic activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 86-99.
    5. Alfonso A. Irarrazabal & Lin Ma & Juan Carlos Parra-Alvarez, 2020. "Optimal Asset Allocation for Commodity Sovereign Wealth Funds," CREATES Research Papers 2020-10, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    6. Phuong Ngo & Francois Gourio, 2016. "Risk Premia at the ZLB: a macroeconomic interpretation," 2016 Meeting Papers 1585, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Escobari, Diego & Sharma, Shahil, 2020. "Explaining the nonlinear response of stock markets to oil price shocks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    8. Nikolay Gospodinov, 2017. "Asset Co-movements: Features and Challenges," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2017-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    9. Bao H. NGUYEN & OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi & Trung Duc TRAN, 2019. "Uncertainty-Dependent and Sign-Dependent Effects of Oil Market Shocks," Discussion papers 19042, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    10. Bergholt, Drago & Larsen, Vegard H. & Seneca, Martin, 2019. "Business cycles in an oil economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 283-303.
    11. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2019. "Oil prices, exchange rates, and interest rates," 2019 Meeting Papers 592, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroeconomic announcements; news; monetary policy; zero lower bound; fiscal policy; fiscal multiplier;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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