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Risk Premia at the ZLB: a macroeconomic interpretation

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  • Phuong Ngo

    (Cleveland State University)

  • Francois Gourio

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)

Abstract

Long-term interest rates have fallen to historically low levels since the Great Recession started. One potential contributor are low premia for infl‡ation and interest rate risk. We show how a fairly standard New Keynesian macroeconomic model generates lower infl‡ation and interest rate risk premia when the economy becomes close to the zero lower bound (ZLB). In particular, the in‡flation risk premia switches from positive to negative. We provide evidence consistent with this mechanism: since 2009, investors seem to view infl‡ation as more positively correlated with the price of risky assets.

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  • Phuong Ngo & Francois Gourio, 2016. "Risk Premia at the ZLB: a macroeconomic interpretation," 2016 Meeting Papers 1585, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed016:1585
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    1. Ricardo Lagos & Shengxing Zhang, 2019. "A Monetary Model of Bilateral Over-the-Counter Markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 33, pages 205-227, July.
    2. Boons, Martijn & Duarte, Fernando & de Roon, Frans & Szymanowska, Marta, 2020. "Time-varying inflation risk and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 444-470.
    3. Marcello Pericoli & Marco Taboga, 2018. "Nearly exact Bayesian estimation of non-linear no-arbitrage term structure models," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1189, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Deepa Datta & Benjamin K Johannsen & Hannah Kwon & Robert J Vigfusson, 2017. "Oil, equities, and the zero lower bound," BIS Working Papers 617, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Lorenzo Bretscher & Alex Hsu & Andrea Tamoni, 2017. "Level and Volatility Shocks to Fiscal Policy: Term Structure Implications," 2017 Meeting Papers 258, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Mohsan Bilal, 2017. "Zeroing in: Asset Pricing at the Zero Lower Bound," 2017 Meeting Papers 377, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani, 2019. "Modelling yields at the lower bound through regime shifts," BIS Working Papers 813, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Marco Bassetto & Wei Cui, 2018. "The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level in an Environment of Low Interest Rates," 2018 Meeting Papers 574, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Bassetto, Marco & Cui, Wei, 2018. "The fiscal theory of the price level in a world of low interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 5-22.
    10. Mitsuru Katagiri, 2018. "Equilibrium Yield Curve, the Phillips Curve, and Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 18/242, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Stefano Neri & Giuseppe Ferrero, 2017. "Monetary policy in a low interest rate environment," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 392, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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